Recent Middle East energy price shocks have elevated euro area headline HICP inflation to 2.9% in July 2026 and are projected to push the August reading to around 3.0-3.3%, with consensus forecasts for the full-year 2026 average centering on 3.0%. This trajectory, reinforced by Eurosystem staff projections and upward revisions from the IMF and ECB, underpins the 66.1% market-implied probability for a 3.1%+ outcome as traders price in sustained energy-driven pressures and limited immediate base-effect relief. Core measures remain contained near 2.5%, while upcoming September ECB policy decisions and September 1 flash data represent key near-term catalysts that could refine the annual path amid ongoing geopolitical risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日3.1%以上 66.1%
2.8~3.0% 20.5%
2.5~2.7% 6.3%
1.0〜1.2% 6.1%
$109,161 Vol.
$109,161 Vol.
1.0%未満
<1%
1.0〜1.2%
6%
1.3~1.5%
1%
1.6~1.8%
2%
1.9~2.1%
1%
2.2~2.4%
1%
2.5~2.7%
6%
2.8~3.0%
21%
3.1%以上
66%
3.1%以上 66.1%
2.8~3.0% 20.5%
2.5~2.7% 6.3%
1.0〜1.2% 6.1%
$109,161 Vol.
$109,161 Vol.
1.0%未満
<1%
1.0〜1.2%
6%
1.3~1.5%
1%
1.6~1.8%
2%
1.9~2.1%
1%
2.2~2.4%
1%
2.5~2.7%
6%
2.8~3.0%
21%
3.1%以上
66%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
マーケット開始日: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
リゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East energy price shocks have elevated euro area headline HICP inflation to 2.9% in July 2026 and are projected to push the August reading to around 3.0-3.3%, with consensus forecasts for the full-year 2026 average centering on 3.0%. This trajectory, reinforced by Eurosystem staff projections and upward revisions from the IMF and ECB, underpins the 66.1% market-implied probability for a 3.1%+ outcome as traders price in sustained energy-driven pressures and limited immediate base-effect relief. Core measures remain contained near 2.5%, while upcoming September ECB policy decisions and September 1 flash data represent key near-term catalysts that could refine the annual path amid ongoing geopolitical risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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