Incumbent President Iliana Iotova leads trader consensus at 41.5% implied probability for the fall 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, bolstered by her seamless ascension to office in January 2026 following Rumen Radev's resignation and her high visibility in calling the April 19 snap parliamentary election amid ongoing political deadlock. Radev's newly formed Progressive Bulgaria alliance, polling at 28-34% in recent surveys from Gallup and Sova H, signals strong support for continuity candidates like Iotova from his base, while the fragmented field favors her incumbency advantage. Nikolai Denkov at 26.5% reflects lingering reformist momentum from his prior We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria coalition, though recent parliamentary polls place them around 11%. Rosen Zhelyazkov's 13% ties to GERB's steady 20-23% showing as the main opposition, but his government's December 2025 collapse underscores coalition instability; outcomes from the imminent parliamentary vote could shift endorsements and alliances ahead of the two-round presidential contest.