Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through extensive security apparatus and repeated military purges has produced the trader consensus reflected in the 97.2% probability assigned to no coup attempt before 2027. Recent investigations targeting senior generals, including close associates, have been framed by analysts as further centralization rather than evidence of organized opposition, with no widely reported challenges to leadership continuity emerging since the market's November 2025 start date. China's opaque system and historical patterns of rapid power concentration reinforce this positioning. Limited scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden leadership health developments, severe economic dislocation fracturing elite alignments, or abrupt surfacing of undetected military grievances within the resolution window ending December 31, 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$133,483 거래량
$133,483 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$133,483 거래량
$133,483 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through extensive security apparatus and repeated military purges has produced the trader consensus reflected in the 97.2% probability assigned to no coup attempt before 2027. Recent investigations targeting senior generals, including close associates, have been framed by analysts as further centralization rather than evidence of organized opposition, with no widely reported challenges to leadership continuity emerging since the market's November 2025 start date. China's opaque system and historical patterns of rapid power concentration reinforce this positioning. Limited scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden leadership health developments, severe economic dislocation fracturing elite alignments, or abrupt surfacing of undetected military grievances within the resolution window ending December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$133,483종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through extensive security apparatus and repeated military purges has produced the trader consensus reflected in the 97.2% probability assigned to no coup attempt before 2027. Recent investigations targeting senior generals, including close associates, have been framed by analysts as further centralization rather than evidence of organized opposition, with no widely reported challenges to leadership continuity emerging since the market's November 2025 start date. China's opaque system and historical patterns of rapid power concentration reinforce this positioning. Limited scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden leadership health developments, severe economic dislocation fracturing elite alignments, or abrupt surfacing of undetected military grievances within the resolution window ending December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$133,483종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through extensive security apparatus and repeated military purges has produced the trader consensus reflected in the 97.2% probability assigned to no coup attempt before 2027. Recent investigations targeting senior generals, including close associates, have been framed by analysts as further centralization rather than evidence of organized opposition, with no widely reported challenges to leadership continuity emerging since the market's November 2025 start date. China's opaque system and historical patterns of rapid power concentration reinforce this positioning. Limited scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden leadership health developments, severe economic dislocation fracturing elite alignments, or abrupt surfacing of undetected military grievances within the resolution window ending December 31, 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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