Xi Jinping maintains firm centralized authority over the Chinese Communist Party, state institutions, and People's Liberation Army through repeated personnel changes and security controls that have suppressed visible factional challenges. Early 2026 military leadership adjustments, including actions against senior officers, have been widely viewed by analysts as further consolidation rather than indicators of instability, with no verified reports of organized dissent or coup plotting emerging in the subsequent months. Traders reflect this in the 97.2% probability assigned to no attempt before the end of 2026, consistent with historical patterns of rapid elite realignment under the current leadership. Even so, low-probability shifts could arise from abrupt leadership health developments, acute economic pressures prompting elite realignments, or unforeseen external crises testing institutional loyalties ahead of the 2027 Party Congress.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$133,383 거래량
$133,383 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$133,383 거래량
$133,383 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm centralized authority over the Chinese Communist Party, state institutions, and People's Liberation Army through repeated personnel changes and security controls that have suppressed visible factional challenges. Early 2026 military leadership adjustments, including actions against senior officers, have been widely viewed by analysts as further consolidation rather than indicators of instability, with no verified reports of organized dissent or coup plotting emerging in the subsequent months. Traders reflect this in the 97.2% probability assigned to no attempt before the end of 2026, consistent with historical patterns of rapid elite realignment under the current leadership. Even so, low-probability shifts could arise from abrupt leadership health developments, acute economic pressures prompting elite realignments, or unforeseen external crises testing institutional loyalties ahead of the 2027 Party Congress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$133,383종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm centralized authority over the Chinese Communist Party, state institutions, and People's Liberation Army through repeated personnel changes and security controls that have suppressed visible factional challenges. Early 2026 military leadership adjustments, including actions against senior officers, have been widely viewed by analysts as further consolidation rather than indicators of instability, with no verified reports of organized dissent or coup plotting emerging in the subsequent months. Traders reflect this in the 97.2% probability assigned to no attempt before the end of 2026, consistent with historical patterns of rapid elite realignment under the current leadership. Even so, low-probability shifts could arise from abrupt leadership health developments, acute economic pressures prompting elite realignments, or unforeseen external crises testing institutional loyalties ahead of the 2027 Party Congress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$133,383종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping maintains firm centralized authority over the Chinese Communist Party, state institutions, and People's Liberation Army through repeated personnel changes and security controls that have suppressed visible factional challenges. Early 2026 military leadership adjustments, including actions against senior officers, have been widely viewed by analysts as further consolidation rather than indicators of instability, with no verified reports of organized dissent or coup plotting emerging in the subsequent months. Traders reflect this in the 97.2% probability assigned to no attempt before the end of 2026, consistent with historical patterns of rapid elite realignment under the current leadership. Even so, low-probability shifts could arise from abrupt leadership health developments, acute economic pressures prompting elite realignments, or unforeseen external crises testing institutional loyalties ahead of the 2027 Party Congress.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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