Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31.4%, 23.5%, and 14.4% implied probabilities, reflecting year-to-date U.S. airstrikes and operations in Somalia (latest AFRICOM strike April 15 targeting al-Shabaab), Iran (ongoing Operation Epic Fury since February 28 amid the 2026 Iran war), Syria (ISIS targets), Venezuela (January raid), Nigeria, Iraq, and Yemen's Houthis, tallying roughly six to seven distinct nations so far. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran conflict escalation—potentially adding Lebanon (Hezbollah) or expanding Yemen strikes—balanced against de-escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs. Further separation could arise from North Korean provocations, Taiwan tensions, or intensified anti-drug naval actions in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean, as seen in the April 14 vessel strike.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트7 31.4%
8 23.5%
9 14.4%
6 10.0%
$964,418 거래량
$964,418 거래량
2026.12.31
6
10%
7
31%
8
24%
9
14%
10
9%
11
4%
12
3%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
2%
7 31.4%
8 23.5%
9 14.4%
6 10.0%
$964,418 거래량
$964,418 거래량
2026.12.31
6
$420,356 거래량
10%
7
$6,644 거래량
31%
8
$105,235 거래량
24%
9
$11,332 거래량
14%
10
$11,829 거래량
9%
11
$11,909 거래량
4%
12
$28,360 거래량
3%
13
$47,166 거래량
2%
14
$42,028 거래량
1%
15+
$119,718 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31.4%, 23.5%, and 14.4% implied probabilities, reflecting year-to-date U.S. airstrikes and operations in Somalia (latest AFRICOM strike April 15 targeting al-Shabaab), Iran (ongoing Operation Epic Fury since February 28 amid the 2026 Iran war), Syria (ISIS targets), Venezuela (January raid), Nigeria, Iraq, and Yemen's Houthis, tallying roughly six to seven distinct nations so far. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran conflict escalation—potentially adding Lebanon (Hezbollah) or expanding Yemen strikes—balanced against de-escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs. Further separation could arise from North Korean provocations, Taiwan tensions, or intensified anti-drug naval actions in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean, as seen in the April 14 vessel strike.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
거래량
$964,418종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31.4%, 23.5%, and 14.4% implied probabilities, reflecting year-to-date U.S. airstrikes and operations in Somalia (latest AFRICOM strike April 15 targeting al-Shabaab), Iran (ongoing Operation Epic Fury since February 28 amid the 2026 Iran war), Syria (ISIS targets), Venezuela (January raid), Nigeria, Iraq, and Yemen's Houthis, tallying roughly six to seven distinct nations so far. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran conflict escalation—potentially adding Lebanon (Hezbollah) or expanding Yemen strikes—balanced against de-escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs. Further separation could arise from North Korean provocations, Taiwan tensions, or intensified anti-drug naval actions in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean, as seen in the April 14 vessel strike.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$964,418종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31.4%, 23.5%, and 14.4% implied probabilities, reflecting year-to-date U.S. airstrikes and operations in Somalia (latest AFRICOM strike April 15 targeting al-Shabaab), Iran (ongoing Operation Epic Fury since February 28 amid the 2026 Iran war), Syria (ISIS targets), Venezuela (January raid), Nigeria, Iraq, and Yemen's Houthis, tallying roughly six to seven distinct nations so far. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iran conflict escalation—potentially adding Lebanon (Hezbollah) or expanding Yemen strikes—balanced against de-escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs. Further separation could arise from North Korean provocations, Taiwan tensions, or intensified anti-drug naval actions in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean, as seen in the April 14 vessel strike.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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