Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest net loss for Republicans—from 26 current governorships to 24–25 at 36.5%—reflecting midterm headwinds for the president's party and vulnerabilities in battleground states amid 36 races, including nine Republican term-limited incumbents plus Iowa's open seat. Recent ratings shifts in the past month drove this positioning: Cook Political Report moved Iowa to toss-up and Ohio from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, while Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted Georgia to toss-up, signaling tightening contests based on early polling averages. Competitive races like Michigan (Republican slight lead), Arizona (Democratic lead), Nevada, and Kansas remain pivotal, with primaries underway and general polling expected to intensify ahead of November. Lower outcomes like under 22 (24%) account for potential Democratic flips in these swings.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트24–25 37%
22개 미만 24%
22–23 22%
26–27 16%
$662,593 거래량
$662,593 거래량
22개 미만
24%
22–23
22%
24–25
37%
26–27
16%
28–29
5%
30–31
<1%
32개 이상
<1%
24–25 37%
22개 미만 24%
22–23 22%
26–27 16%
$662,593 거래량
$662,593 거래량
22개 미만
24%
22–23
22%
24–25
37%
26–27
16%
28–29
5%
30–31
<1%
32개 이상
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest net loss for Republicans—from 26 current governorships to 24–25 at 36.5%—reflecting midterm headwinds for the president's party and vulnerabilities in battleground states amid 36 races, including nine Republican term-limited incumbents plus Iowa's open seat. Recent ratings shifts in the past month drove this positioning: Cook Political Report moved Iowa to toss-up and Ohio from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, while Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted Georgia to toss-up, signaling tightening contests based on early polling averages. Competitive races like Michigan (Republican slight lead), Arizona (Democratic lead), Nevada, and Kansas remain pivotal, with primaries underway and general polling expected to intensify ahead of November. Lower outcomes like under 22 (24%) account for potential Democratic flips in these swings.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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