Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 45.5% implied probability in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election, reflecting its allocation of 27 seats within the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) amid anti-incumbency against the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). IUML's dominance in Muslim-majority northern constituencies like Malappuram strengthens this positioning, bolstered by recent seat-sharing agreements finalized on March 18 and candidate lists announced mid-March featuring youth infusions and veterans like P.K. Kunhalikutty. Pre-poll surveys indicate UDF edges in key seats, with high 78% voter turnout on April 9 polling day amplifying mobilization in IUML strongholds. Lower outcomes like 13–15 or 10–12 at 25.5% and 25% account for potential LDF resilience or BJP gains splitting opposition votes, while results await counting on May 4.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트19–21 43%
13–15 39%
10–12 15%
16–18 9%
$7,735 거래량
$7,735 거래량
2026.04.09
<10
<1%
10–12
31%
13–15
39%
16–18
9%
19–21
43%
22+
17%
19–21 43%
13–15 39%
10–12 15%
16–18 9%
$7,735 거래량
$7,735 거래량
2026.04.09
<10
$241 거래량
<1%
10–12
$99 거래량
31%
13–15
$0 거래량
39%
16–18
$7,139 거래량
9%
19–21
$37 거래량
43%
22+
$220 거래량
17%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 45.5% implied probability in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election, reflecting its allocation of 27 seats within the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) amid anti-incumbency against the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). IUML's dominance in Muslim-majority northern constituencies like Malappuram strengthens this positioning, bolstered by recent seat-sharing agreements finalized on March 18 and candidate lists announced mid-March featuring youth infusions and veterans like P.K. Kunhalikutty. Pre-poll surveys indicate UDF edges in key seats, with high 78% voter turnout on April 9 polling day amplifying mobilization in IUML strongholds. Lower outcomes like 13–15 or 10–12 at 25.5% and 25% account for potential LDF resilience or BJP gains splitting opposition votes, while results await counting on May 4.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
마켓 개설일: Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ET
거래량
$7,735종료일
2026.04.09마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 45.5% implied probability in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election, reflecting its allocation of 27 seats within the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) amid anti-incumbency against the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). IUML's dominance in Muslim-majority northern constituencies like Malappuram strengthens this positioning, bolstered by recent seat-sharing agreements finalized on March 18 and candidate lists announced mid-March featuring youth infusions and veterans like P.K. Kunhalikutty. Pre-poll surveys indicate UDF edges in key seats, with high 78% voter turnout on April 9 polling day amplifying mobilization in IUML strongholds. Lower outcomes like 13–15 or 10–12 at 25.5% and 25% account for potential LDF resilience or BJP gains splitting opposition votes, while results await counting on May 4.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
거래량
$7,735종료일
2026.04.09마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 45.5% implied probability in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election, reflecting its allocation of 27 seats within the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) amid anti-incumbency against the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). IUML's dominance in Muslim-majority northern constituencies like Malappuram strengthens this positioning, bolstered by recent seat-sharing agreements finalized on March 18 and candidate lists announced mid-March featuring youth infusions and veterans like P.K. Kunhalikutty. Pre-poll surveys indicate UDF edges in key seats, with high 78% voter turnout on April 9 polling day amplifying mobilization in IUML strongholds. Lower outcomes like 13–15 or 10–12 at 25.5% and 25% account for potential LDF resilience or BJP gains splitting opposition votes, while results await counting on May 4.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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