Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9 amid the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah war and displacement crisis, postponing May elections to 2028 and fueling trader uncertainty that fragments odds with no outcome above 17%, as the market risks resolving to "Other" absent results by October 2026. Amal Movement holds a slim lead among traders due to Speaker Nabih Berri's pivotal role in the extension vote and enduring Shia constituency strength, while Sunni Taqaddom Party and Christian Lebanese Forces trail closely in this confessional system allocating 128 seats proportionally by sect. Absent recent polls, the race stays tight amid Sunni fragmentation post-2022 and opposition gains; US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks or diaspora registration surges could consolidate leads via alliances or turnout shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트아말 운동 (아말) 16.7%
타카돔당 12.3%
레바논군 (LF) 8%
독립운동(IM) 4.0%
$481,411 거래량
$481,411 거래량
2026.05.31
아말 운동 (아말)
17%
타카돔당
8%
레바논군 (LF)
8%
독립운동(IM)
4%
이슬람 자선 사업 협회 (ICPA)
4%
국가대화당 (NDP)
2%
ReLebanon
2%
전국자유당 (NLP)
2%
마라다 운동 (MM)
2%
헤즈볼라 (헤즈브)
2%
국민 나세리스트 조직 (PNO)
2%
자유애국운동 (FPM)
1%
존엄 운동(DM)
1%
레바논 아랍 사회주의 바트당 (바트당)
1%
마다당 (마다)
1%
이슬람 그룹 (IG)
1%
와타니 연합 (와타니)
1%
아르메니아 혁명 연맹 (ARF)
1%
카타에브당 (카타에브)
1%
진보사회당(PSP)
1%
연합당 (UP)
1%
라나 – 사회민주당 (Lana)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
아말 운동 (아말) 16.7%
타카돔당 12.3%
레바논군 (LF) 8%
독립운동(IM) 4.0%
$481,411 거래량
$481,411 거래량
2026.05.31
아말 운동 (아말)
$42,375 거래량
17%
타카돔당
$4,606 거래량
8%
레바논군 (LF)
$145,103 거래량
8%
독립운동(IM)
$2,444 거래량
4%
이슬람 자선 사업 협회 (ICPA)
$2,885 거래량
4%
국가대화당 (NDP)
$41,073 거래량
2%
ReLebanon
$2,096 거래량
2%
전국자유당 (NLP)
$2,970 거래량
2%
마라다 운동 (MM)
$2,313 거래량
2%
헤즈볼라 (헤즈브)
$41,888 거래량
2%
국민 나세리스트 조직 (PNO)
$2,216 거래량
2%
자유애국운동 (FPM)
$72,509 거래량
1%
존엄 운동(DM)
$22,250 거래량
1%
레바논 아랍 사회주의 바트당 (바트당)
$3,875 거래량
1%
마다당 (마다)
$22,526 거래량
1%
이슬람 그룹 (IG)
$2,970 거래량
1%
와타니 연합 (와타니)
$3,271 거래량
1%
아르메니아 혁명 연맹 (ARF)
$4,651 거래량
1%
카타에브당 (카타에브)
$2,934 거래량
1%
진보사회당(PSP)
$47,029 거래량
1%
연합당 (UP)
$2,613 거래량
1%
라나 – 사회민주당 (Lana)
$3,966 거래량
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$2,850 거래량
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9 amid the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah war and displacement crisis, postponing May elections to 2028 and fueling trader uncertainty that fragments odds with no outcome above 17%, as the market risks resolving to "Other" absent results by October 2026. Amal Movement holds a slim lead among traders due to Speaker Nabih Berri's pivotal role in the extension vote and enduring Shia constituency strength, while Sunni Taqaddom Party and Christian Lebanese Forces trail closely in this confessional system allocating 128 seats proportionally by sect. Absent recent polls, the race stays tight amid Sunni fragmentation post-2022 and opposition gains; US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks or diaspora registration surges could consolidate leads via alliances or turnout shifts.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
거래량
$481,411종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9 amid the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah war and displacement crisis, postponing May elections to 2028 and fueling trader uncertainty that fragments odds with no outcome above 17%, as the market risks resolving to "Other" absent results by October 2026. Amal Movement holds a slim lead among traders due to Speaker Nabih Berri's pivotal role in the extension vote and enduring Shia constituency strength, while Sunni Taqaddom Party and Christian Lebanese Forces trail closely in this confessional system allocating 128 seats proportionally by sect. Absent recent polls, the race stays tight amid Sunni fragmentation post-2022 and opposition gains; US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks or diaspora registration surges could consolidate leads via alliances or turnout shifts.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
거래량
$481,411종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9 amid the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah war and displacement crisis, postponing May elections to 2028 and fueling trader uncertainty that fragments odds with no outcome above 17%, as the market risks resolving to "Other" absent results by October 2026. Amal Movement holds a slim lead among traders due to Speaker Nabih Berri's pivotal role in the extension vote and enduring Shia constituency strength, while Sunni Taqaddom Party and Christian Lebanese Forces trail closely in this confessional system allocating 128 seats proportionally by sect. Absent recent polls, the race stays tight amid Sunni fragmentation post-2022 and opposition gains; US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks or diaspora registration surges could consolidate leads via alliances or turnout shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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