Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds' bid for a third term, bolstered by a Trump endorsement and dominant fundraising—$2.9 million cash on hand as of late 2025—anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican Senate winner in deep-red South Dakota, where no Democrat has won statewide since 2008. With primaries on June 2, Rounds faces minimal GOP primary opposition from Justin McNeal, while Democrat Julian Beaudion runs unopposed and independent Brian Bengs trails in early hypotheticals. All forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting incumbency advantages and weak opposition. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
93%
Democrat
8%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
$1,886 거래량
93%
Democrat
$1,480 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds' bid for a third term, bolstered by a Trump endorsement and dominant fundraising—$2.9 million cash on hand as of late 2025—anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican Senate winner in deep-red South Dakota, where no Democrat has won statewide since 2008. With primaries on June 2, Rounds faces minimal GOP primary opposition from Justin McNeal, while Democrat Julian Beaudion runs unopposed and independent Brian Bengs trails in early hypotheticals. All forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting incumbency advantages and weak opposition. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
거래량
$3,366종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds' bid for a third term, bolstered by a Trump endorsement and dominant fundraising—$2.9 million cash on hand as of late 2025—anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican Senate winner in deep-red South Dakota, where no Democrat has won statewide since 2008. With primaries on June 2, Rounds faces minimal GOP primary opposition from Justin McNeal, while Democrat Julian Beaudion runs unopposed and independent Brian Bengs trails in early hypotheticals. All forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting incumbency advantages and weak opposition. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$3,366종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds' bid for a third term, bolstered by a Trump endorsement and dominant fundraising—$2.9 million cash on hand as of late 2025—anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican Senate winner in deep-red South Dakota, where no Democrat has won statewide since 2008. With primaries on June 2, Rounds faces minimal GOP primary opposition from Justin McNeal, while Democrat Julian Beaudion runs unopposed and independent Brian Bengs trails in early hypotheticals. All forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting incumbency advantages and weak opposition. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문