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세계·글로벌 선거

어떤 후보가 브라질 대선 출마선언을 하게 될까요?

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세계·글로벌 선거

어떤 후보가 브라질 대선 출마선언을 하게 될까요?

$271,467 거래량

2026.10.04
Polymarket

$271,467 거래량

Polymarket

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$15,796 거래량

88%

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$112,304 거래량

79%

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$65,801 거래량

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미셸 볼소나루

$20,563 거래량

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자이르 보우소나루

$9,461 거래량

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General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 4-6 points in recent first-round polls from Datafolha, Futura, and Ideia Inteligência (early April 2026), with both far ahead of distant challengers like São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (4-6%) and Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema (3-5%), positioning them as frontrunners to advance under Brazil's two-round presidential system. Flávio has narrowed the gap from March surveys, consolidating right-wing support after the party-switching window closed April 3, while Lula holds incumbency edges in Northeast strongholds amid 43% approval ratings. No candidate nears the 50%+1 threshold for outright victory, ensuring a likely October 25 runoff after the October 4 first round; upcoming candidate registrations by August and campaign launches August 16 could shift dynamics.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
거래량
$271,467
종료일
2026.10.04
마켓 개설일
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 4-6 points in recent first-round polls from Datafolha, Futura, and Ideia Inteligência (early April 2026), with both far ahead of distant challengers like São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (4-6%) and Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema (3-5%), positioning them as frontrunners to advance under Brazil's two-round presidential system. Flávio has narrowed the gap from March surveys, consolidating right-wing support after the party-switching window closed April 3, while Lula holds incumbency edges in Northeast strongholds amid 43% approval ratings. No candidate nears the 50%+1 threshold for outright victory, ensuring a likely October 25 runoff after the October 4 first round; upcoming candidate registrations by August and campaign launches August 16 could shift dynamics.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
거래량
$271,467
종료일
2026.10.04
마켓 개설일
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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자주 묻는 질문

"어떤 후보가 브라질 대선 출마선언을 하게 될까요?"은 6개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 88%의 "플라비오 보우소나루"이며, 이어서 79%의 "루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 88¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 88%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "어떤 후보가 브라질 대선 출마선언을 하게 될까요?"은 총 $271.5K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Sep 18, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"어떤 후보가 브라질 대선 출마선언을 하게 될까요?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 6개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"어떤 후보가 브라질 대선 출마선언을 하게 될까요?"의 현재 유력 후보는 88%의 "플라비오 보우소나루"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 88%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 79%의 "루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"어떤 후보가 브라질 대선 출마선언을 하게 될까요?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.