Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #2 large language model on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April 30, 2026, reflecting Claude Opus 4.6-thinking (1502 Elo) and base Opus 4.6 (1496 Elo) currently holding the top two spots as of April 14. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent dominance in agentic coding, web development, and design benchmarks, where Claude variants outperformed rivals in multi-turn tasks and visual-to-code generation. Meta's muse-spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, preliminary), supporting its 7.2% odds amid open-weight competitive pressure, while OpenAI (4.7%) and Google (4.0%) lag due to softer recent updates. With two weeks remaining, no confirmed rival releases loom, though surprises could shift the closely contested rankings.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 81%
Meta 7.2%
OpenAI 4.7%
구글 4.0%
$37,456 거래량
$37,456 거래량
2026.04.30
Anthropic
81%
Meta
7%
OpenAI
5%
구글
4%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
알리바바
<1%
xAI
<1%
메이투안
<1%
아마존
<1%
바이두
<1%
문샷
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
마이크로소프트
<1%
Anthropic 81%
Meta 7.2%
OpenAI 4.7%
구글 4.0%
$37,456 거래량
$37,456 거래량
2026.04.30
Anthropic
$15,282 거래량
81%
Meta
$856 거래량
7%
OpenAI
$3,094 거래량
5%
구글
$3,221 거래량
4%
DeepSeek
$1,496 거래량
1%
ByteDance
$2,584 거래량
1%
알리바바
$1,387 거래량
<1%
xAI
$1,331 거래량
<1%
메이투안
$1,533 거래량
<1%
아마존
$1,247 거래량
<1%
바이두
$1,407 거래량
<1%
문샷
$1,250 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$1,455 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$1,313 거래량
<1%
마이크로소프트
$0 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #2 large language model on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April 30, 2026, reflecting Claude Opus 4.6-thinking (1502 Elo) and base Opus 4.6 (1496 Elo) currently holding the top two spots as of April 14. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent dominance in agentic coding, web development, and design benchmarks, where Claude variants outperformed rivals in multi-turn tasks and visual-to-code generation. Meta's muse-spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, preliminary), supporting its 7.2% odds amid open-weight competitive pressure, while OpenAI (4.7%) and Google (4.0%) lag due to softer recent updates. With two weeks remaining, no confirmed rival releases loom, though surprises could shift the closely contested rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
거래량
$37,456종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #2 large language model on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April 30, 2026, reflecting Claude Opus 4.6-thinking (1502 Elo) and base Opus 4.6 (1496 Elo) currently holding the top two spots as of April 14. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent dominance in agentic coding, web development, and design benchmarks, where Claude variants outperformed rivals in multi-turn tasks and visual-to-code generation. Meta's muse-spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, preliminary), supporting its 7.2% odds amid open-weight competitive pressure, while OpenAI (4.7%) and Google (4.0%) lag due to softer recent updates. With two weeks remaining, no confirmed rival releases loom, though surprises could shift the closely contested rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$37,456종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #2 large language model on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April 30, 2026, reflecting Claude Opus 4.6-thinking (1502 Elo) and base Opus 4.6 (1496 Elo) currently holding the top two spots as of April 14. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent dominance in agentic coding, web development, and design benchmarks, where Claude variants outperformed rivals in multi-turn tasks and visual-to-code generation. Meta's muse-spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, preliminary), supporting its 7.2% odds amid open-weight competitive pressure, while OpenAI (4.7%) and Google (4.0%) lag due to softer recent updates. With two weeks remaining, no confirmed rival releases loom, though surprises could shift the closely contested rankings.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문