Trader consensus prices an 88% implied probability on "No" for Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by stark regulatory inaction revealed in February-March 2026 disclosures: California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) records show Tesla logged zero autonomous test miles in 2025, with no applications for the critical California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) driverless deployment permit or expanded Transportation Charter-Party authorization. Despite Cybercab sightings in Fremont and Mountain View this month signaling testing, CPUC officials confirm Tesla's operations remain supervised chauffeur services, not true driverless robotaxi offerings. Texas pilots advance with fewer hurdles, but California's stringent safety data requirements and historical approval timelines—often 6-12 months—leave scant room for a pre-deadline breakthrough amid FSD unsupervised delays.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$94,814 거래량
$94,814 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$94,814 거래량
$94,814 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 88% implied probability on "No" for Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by stark regulatory inaction revealed in February-March 2026 disclosures: California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) records show Tesla logged zero autonomous test miles in 2025, with no applications for the critical California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) driverless deployment permit or expanded Transportation Charter-Party authorization. Despite Cybercab sightings in Fremont and Mountain View this month signaling testing, CPUC officials confirm Tesla's operations remain supervised chauffeur services, not true driverless robotaxi offerings. Texas pilots advance with fewer hurdles, but California's stringent safety data requirements and historical approval timelines—often 6-12 months—leave scant room for a pre-deadline breakthrough amid FSD unsupervised delays.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ET
거래량
$94,814종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 88% implied probability on "No" for Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by stark regulatory inaction revealed in February-March 2026 disclosures: California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) records show Tesla logged zero autonomous test miles in 2025, with no applications for the critical California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) driverless deployment permit or expanded Transportation Charter-Party authorization. Despite Cybercab sightings in Fremont and Mountain View this month signaling testing, CPUC officials confirm Tesla's operations remain supervised chauffeur services, not true driverless robotaxi offerings. Texas pilots advance with fewer hurdles, but California's stringent safety data requirements and historical approval timelines—often 6-12 months—leave scant room for a pre-deadline breakthrough amid FSD unsupervised delays.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$94,814종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 88% implied probability on "No" for Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by stark regulatory inaction revealed in February-March 2026 disclosures: California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) records show Tesla logged zero autonomous test miles in 2025, with no applications for the critical California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) driverless deployment permit or expanded Transportation Charter-Party authorization. Despite Cybercab sightings in Fremont and Mountain View this month signaling testing, CPUC officials confirm Tesla's operations remain supervised chauffeur services, not true driverless robotaxi offerings. Texas pilots advance with fewer hurdles, but California's stringent safety data requirements and historical approval timelines—often 6-12 months—leave scant room for a pre-deadline breakthrough amid FSD unsupervised delays.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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