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๋…๋ฆฝ์„ฑ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ฐ ํ™•๋ฅ 

ยท
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
WorldยทCanada

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

10%

$223K ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰

$76.0K Liq.

14

Ends 6๊ฐœ์›” ํ›„

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
PoliticsยทTrump

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

8%

$46.2K ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰

$19.1K Liq.

8

Ends 6๊ฐœ์›” ํ›„

Kurds declare independence from Iran?
GeopoliticsยทIndependence

Kurds declare independence from Iran?

1%

$158K ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰

$28.0K Liq.

12

Ends 1์ผ ํ›„

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
GeopoliticsยทIran

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

6%

$111K ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰

$13.5K Liq.

3

Ends 6๊ฐœ์›” ํ›„

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
GeopoliticsยทLebanon

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

<1%

Independence Movement (IM)

$617K ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰

$416K Liq.

15

Ends 29์ผ ์ „

Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?
GeopoliticsยทIndependence

Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?

3%

$16.9K ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰

$20.0K Liq.

Ends 1์ผ ํ›„

Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?
GeopoliticsยทIndependence

Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?

16%

$383 ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰

$141 Liq.

2

Ends 6๊ฐœ์›” ํ›„

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
GeopoliticsยทRussia

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

10%

December 31, 2026

$658K ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰

$73.0K Liq.

Ends 6๊ฐœ์›” ํ›„

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
GeopoliticsยทDonestk

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

6%

$143K ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰

$23.2K Liq.

Ends 6๊ฐœ์›” ํ›„

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
Politics

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

<1%

$42.8K ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰

$21.0K Liq.

2

Ends 1์ผ ํ›„

์ž์ฃผ ๋ฌป๋Š” ์งˆ๋ฌธ

Polymarket์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋งˆ์ผ“์œผ๋กœ, ์†๋ณด, ์ •์น˜, ์Šคํฌ์ธ , ์„ ๊ฑฐ, ์•”ํ˜ธํ™”ํ, ๊ธˆ์œต, ๊ธฐ์ˆ , ๋ฌธํ™” ๋“ฑ ๋…๋ฆฝ์„ฑ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ์ฃผ์ œ๋ฅผ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์–ป๊ณ  ์ง€์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ ๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

Polymarket์€ ํ˜„์žฌ ๋…๋ฆฝ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด โ€œWill Alberta vote for independence in 2026?โ€๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ์ถ”์ ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” 10๊ฐœ์˜ ํ™œ์„ฑ ๋งˆ์ผ“์„ ์šด์˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋„๋ฆฌ ๋…ผ์˜๋˜๋Š” ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ๋“  ํ‹ˆ์ƒˆ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋“ , ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์€ $2.0M ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Ÿ‰์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ํ™•๋ฅ ์„ ์ง‘๊ณ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ํŒฌ๊ณผ ํˆฌ์ž์ž ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํฌ๊ด„์ ์ธ ์‹œ๊ฐ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ฐ ๋งˆ์ผ“์€ โ€œKurds declare independence from Iran?โ€์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์˜ˆ/์•„๋‹ˆ์˜ค ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. "์˜ˆ" ๋˜๋Š” "์•„๋‹ˆ์˜ค" ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ฃผ์‹์„ ๋งค์ˆ˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ํฌ๋ผ์šฐ๋“œ์†Œ์‹ฑ๋œ ํ™•๋ฅ ์„ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด "์˜ˆ"๊ฐ€ 30์„ผํŠธ์ด๋ฉด 30%์˜ ํ™•๋ฅ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋งˆ์ผ“์€ ๊ณต์‹ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ •์‚ฐ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. โ€œWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?โ€๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋‹ค์ค‘ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ํŠน์ • ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์˜ค๋Š˜ ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํ™œ๋ฐœํ•œ ๋งˆ์ผ“์€ โ€œWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?โ€์ด๋ฉฐ, ํฌ๋ผ์šฐ๋“œ๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ December 31, 2026์— 10%์˜ ํ™•๋ฅ ์„ ๋ถ€์—ฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ํ™•๋ฅ ์€ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ •๋ณด๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜๊ณ  ์‚ฌ์šฉ์ž๊ฐ€ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ํ•จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ์—…๋ฐ์ดํŠธ๋˜์–ด ๊ธฐ์กด ๋ถ๋ฉ”์ด์ปค ํ™•๋ฅ ๊ณผ ๋น„๊ตํ•œ ๋งˆ์ผ“์˜ ๋™์  ์Šค๋ƒ…์ƒท์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์žก์Œ์„ ์ค„์—ฌ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์—ฌ๋ก ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋‚˜ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€ ์˜๊ฒฌ๊ณผ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ Polymarket์€ ๊ธˆ์ „์  ํ™•์‹ ์— ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจ๋œ ๋…๋ฆฝ์„ฑ ์˜ˆ์ธก์˜ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ํ™•๋ฅ ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋ฉฐ, ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋‚˜ ์„ค๋ฌธ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋น ๋ฅด๊ณ  ์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ˆ˜์ฒœ ๋ช…์˜ ํŠธ๋ ˆ์ด๋”๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํŽธํ–ฅ ์—†๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ์„ ์–ป์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์—ฌ๋ก ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ณด๋‹ค ์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์ฃผ์‹์„ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ์˜ˆ์ธก์ด ์ •ํ™•ํ•˜๋ฉด ์ž ์žฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ ๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.