The unexpected death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa in January 2026 triggered a special election won by James Gallagher, shifting focus to the November general election under newly drawn lines from Proposition 50 redistricting. These changes have made the rural northern California district more competitive for Democrats by altering voter composition in key areas. State Senator Mike McGuire has emerged as the Democratic nominee with strong fundraising and organizational support, leading traders to assign the party a 93.5% implied probability. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in the altered electoral math and candidate strength. A Republican upset remains possible through higher rural turnout, national political shifts favoring the GOP, or late campaign developments that narrow the margin in this open-seat contest.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$32,254 Wol.
$32,254 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
4%
$32,254 Wol.
$32,254 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,568 Wol.
94%
Republican Party
$8,686 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The unexpected death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa in January 2026 triggered a special election won by James Gallagher, shifting focus to the November general election under newly drawn lines from Proposition 50 redistricting. These changes have made the rural northern California district more competitive for Democrats by altering voter composition in key areas. State Senator Mike McGuire has emerged as the Democratic nominee with strong fundraising and organizational support, leading traders to assign the party a 93.5% implied probability. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in the altered electoral math and candidate strength. A Republican upset remains possible through higher rural turnout, national political shifts favoring the GOP, or late campaign developments that narrow the margin in this open-seat contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$32,254Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The unexpected death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa in January 2026 triggered a special election won by James Gallagher, shifting focus to the November general election under newly drawn lines from Proposition 50 redistricting. These changes have made the rural northern California district more competitive for Democrats by altering voter composition in key areas. State Senator Mike McGuire has emerged as the Democratic nominee with strong fundraising and organizational support, leading traders to assign the party a 93.5% implied probability. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in the altered electoral math and candidate strength. A Republican upset remains possible through higher rural turnout, national political shifts favoring the GOP, or late campaign developments that narrow the margin in this open-seat contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$32,254Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The unexpected death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa in January 2026 triggered a special election won by James Gallagher, shifting focus to the November general election under newly drawn lines from Proposition 50 redistricting. These changes have made the rural northern California district more competitive for Democrats by altering voter composition in key areas. State Senator Mike McGuire has emerged as the Democratic nominee with strong fundraising and organizational support, leading traders to assign the party a 93.5% implied probability. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in the altered electoral math and candidate strength. A Republican upset remains possible through higher rural turnout, national political shifts favoring the GOP, or late campaign developments that narrow the margin in this open-seat contest.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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