**Market-implied odds for Hong Kong’s September 15 maximum temperature cluster tightly around 31–32 °C, reflecting short-term model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles amid typical mid-September conditions.** An anticyclone aloft and strengthening northeast monsoon flow are expected to limit deep convection while allowing modest daytime heating, with easterly winds of 10–20 km/h and variable cloud cover the main variables separating a 31 °C versus 32 °C outcome. Sea-surface temperatures remain above normal under the developing El Niño, supporting slightly elevated baselines, yet any increase in low-level moisture or afternoon showers could cap the peak. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in latest ECMWF and GFS runs against historical September maxima near 31 °C, with fresh forecast updates from the Observatory the next key catalyst.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 15?
32°C 38%
31°C 33%
35°C or higher 17%
30°C 15%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
5%
30°C
15%
31°C
33%
32°C
38%
33°C
13%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
17%
32°C 38%
31°C 33%
35°C or higher 17%
30°C 15%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
25°C or below
$10 Wol.
2%
26°C
$6 Wol.
1%
27°C
$6 Wol.
1%
28°C
$3 Wol.
1%
29°C
$10 Wol.
5%
30°C
$10 Wol.
15%
31°C
$19 Wol.
33%
32°C
$36 Wol.
38%
33°C
$86 Wol.
13%
34°C
$49 Wol.
4%
35°C or higher
$10 Wol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Market-implied odds for Hong Kong’s September 15 maximum temperature cluster tightly around 31–32 °C, reflecting short-term model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles amid typical mid-September conditions.**
An anticyclone aloft and strengthening northeast monsoon flow are expected to limit deep convection while allowing modest daytime heating, with easterly winds of 10–20 km/h and variable cloud cover the main variables separating a 31 °C versus 32 °C outcome. Sea-surface temperatures remain above normal under the developing El Niño, supporting slightly elevated baselines, yet any increase in low-level moisture or afternoon showers could cap the peak. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in latest ECMWF and GFS runs against historical September maxima near 31 °C, with fresh forecast updates from the Observatory the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Wolumen
$245Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Market-implied odds for Hong Kong’s September 15 maximum temperature cluster tightly around 31–32 °C, reflecting short-term model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles amid typical mid-September conditions.**
An anticyclone aloft and strengthening northeast monsoon flow are expected to limit deep convection while allowing modest daytime heating, with easterly winds of 10–20 km/h and variable cloud cover the main variables separating a 31 °C versus 32 °C outcome. Sea-surface temperatures remain above normal under the developing El Niño, supporting slightly elevated baselines, yet any increase in low-level moisture or afternoon showers could cap the peak. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in latest ECMWF and GFS runs against historical September maxima near 31 °C, with fresh forecast updates from the Observatory the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$245Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds for Hong Kong’s September 15 maximum temperature cluster tightly around 31–32 °C, reflecting short-term model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles amid typical mid-September conditions.** An anticyclone aloft and strengthening northeast monsoon flow are expected to limit deep convection while allowing modest daytime heating, with easterly winds of 10–20 km/h and variable cloud cover the main variables separating a 31 °C versus 32 °C outcome. Sea-surface temperatures remain above normal under the developing El Niño, supporting slightly elevated baselines, yet any increase in low-level moisture or afternoon showers could cap the peak. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in latest ECMWF and GFS runs against historical September maxima near 31 °C, with fresh forecast updates from the Observatory the next key catalyst.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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