**Recent official forecasts and numerical weather prediction model runs place Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 31 around 24–26 °C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for the 25 °C and 26 °C bins.** A weakening high-pressure ridge is giving way to a weak occluding front from the west, increasing afternoon cloud cover and the chance of scattered showers under southwesterly flow. These conditions limit surface heating while keeping boundary-layer moisture moderate, so ensemble guidance clusters daytime peaks near 25 °C with only modest spread. Slight differences in the timing or coverage of cloud breaks versus thicker stratiform layers can shift the realized maximum by 1–2 °C, accounting for the balanced odds between 25 °C, 26 °C, and the 27 °C-or-higher outcome. Updated high-resolution runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will refine this narrow range ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
25°C 31%
26°C 28%
27°C or higher 24%
24°C 18%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
4%
23°C
6%
24°C
18%
25°C
31%
26°C
29%
27°C or higher
24%
25°C 31%
26°C 28%
27°C or higher 24%
24°C 18%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
$5 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$0 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$0 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$0 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$0 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$0 Wol.
4%
23°C
$0 Wol.
6%
24°C
$0 Wol.
18%
25°C
$91 Wol.
31%
26°C
$14 Wol.
29%
27°C or higher
$38 Wol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts and numerical weather prediction model runs place Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 31 around 24–26 °C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for the 25 °C and 26 °C bins.** A weakening high-pressure ridge is giving way to a weak occluding front from the west, increasing afternoon cloud cover and the chance of scattered showers under southwesterly flow. These conditions limit surface heating while keeping boundary-layer moisture moderate, so ensemble guidance clusters daytime peaks near 25 °C with only modest spread. Slight differences in the timing or coverage of cloud breaks versus thicker stratiform layers can shift the realized maximum by 1–2 °C, accounting for the balanced odds between 25 °C, 26 °C, and the 27 °C-or-higher outcome. Updated high-resolution runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will refine this narrow range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$149Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts and numerical weather prediction model runs place Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 31 around 24–26 °C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for the 25 °C and 26 °C bins.** A weakening high-pressure ridge is giving way to a weak occluding front from the west, increasing afternoon cloud cover and the chance of scattered showers under southwesterly flow. These conditions limit surface heating while keeping boundary-layer moisture moderate, so ensemble guidance clusters daytime peaks near 25 °C with only modest spread. Slight differences in the timing or coverage of cloud breaks versus thicker stratiform layers can shift the realized maximum by 1–2 °C, accounting for the balanced odds between 25 °C, 26 °C, and the 27 °C-or-higher outcome. Updated high-resolution runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will refine this narrow range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$149Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official forecasts and numerical weather prediction model runs place Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 31 around 24–26 °C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for the 25 °C and 26 °C bins.** A weakening high-pressure ridge is giving way to a weak occluding front from the west, increasing afternoon cloud cover and the chance of scattered showers under southwesterly flow. These conditions limit surface heating while keeping boundary-layer moisture moderate, so ensemble guidance clusters daytime peaks near 25 °C with only modest spread. Slight differences in the timing or coverage of cloud breaks versus thicker stratiform layers can shift the realized maximum by 1–2 °C, accounting for the balanced odds between 25 °C, 26 °C, and the 27 °C-or-higher outcome. Updated high-resolution runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 48 hours will refine this narrow range ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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