Trader sentiment on major space weather events—defined by NOAA SWPC as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts—for May 3-9 remains tightly contested between zero (48%) and one (47.5%), reflecting subdued forecasts amid Solar Cycle 25's waning peak. Recent NOAA 3-day outlooks show quiet conditions with 50% odds for minor R1-R2 flares, just 10% for R3+, and no G2+ geomagnetic activity predicted beyond a possible Kp=5 (G2) peak on May 7 from a glancing CME around May 5. Late April featured isolated M-class flares and a G1 storm but no qualifiers, quieting active sunspot regions like AR4420. Swing factors include surprise X-class flares triggering R3+ blackouts or CME orientation upgrades; daily SWPC alerts and coronagraph imagery through May 9 will be pivotal for resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many major Space Weather events this week? (May 3 - May 9)
How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 3 - May 9)
0 100.0%
1 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$5,900 Wol.
$5,900 Wol.
May 8, 2026
0
Yes
1
No
2
No
3
No
4
No
5
No
6+
No
0 100.0%
1 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$5,900 Wol.
$5,900 Wol.
May 8, 2026
0
$1,875 Wol.
Yes
1
$986 Wol.
No
2
$722 Wol.
No
3
$597 Wol.
No
4
$563 Wol.
No
5
$638 Wol.
No
6+
$517 Wol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 3, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 9, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader sentiment on major space weather events—defined by NOAA SWPC as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts—for May 3-9 remains tightly contested between zero (48%) and one (47.5%), reflecting subdued forecasts amid Solar Cycle 25's waning peak. Recent NOAA 3-day outlooks show quiet conditions with 50% odds for minor R1-R2 flares, just 10% for R3+, and no G2+ geomagnetic activity predicted beyond a possible Kp=5 (G2) peak on May 7 from a glancing CME around May 5. Late April featured isolated M-class flares and a G1 storm but no qualifiers, quieting active sunspot regions like AR4420. Swing factors include surprise X-class flares triggering R3+ blackouts or CME orientation upgrades; daily SWPC alerts and coronagraph imagery through May 9 will be pivotal for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 3, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 9, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,900Data zakończenia
May 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 3, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 9, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader sentiment on major space weather events—defined by NOAA SWPC as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts—for May 3-9 remains tightly contested between zero (48%) and one (47.5%), reflecting subdued forecasts amid Solar Cycle 25's waning peak. Recent NOAA 3-day outlooks show quiet conditions with 50% odds for minor R1-R2 flares, just 10% for R3+, and no G2+ geomagnetic activity predicted beyond a possible Kp=5 (G2) peak on May 7 from a glancing CME around May 5. Late April featured isolated M-class flares and a G1 storm but no qualifiers, quieting active sunspot regions like AR4420. Swing factors include surprise X-class flares triggering R3+ blackouts or CME orientation upgrades; daily SWPC alerts and coronagraph imagery through May 9 will be pivotal for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 3, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 9, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Wolumen
$5,900Data zakończenia
May 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Trader sentiment on major space weather events—defined by NOAA SWPC as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts—for May 3-9 remains tightly contested between zero (48%) and one (47.5%), reflecting subdued forecasts amid Solar Cycle 25's waning peak. Recent NOAA 3-day outlooks show quiet conditions with 50% odds for minor R1-R2 flares, just 10% for R3+, and no G2+ geomagnetic activity predicted beyond a possible Kp=5 (G2) peak on May 7 from a glancing CME around May 5. Late April featured isolated M-class flares and a G1 storm but no qualifiers, quieting active sunspot regions like AR4420. Swing factors include surprise X-class flares triggering R3+ blackouts or CME orientation upgrades; daily SWPC alerts and coronagraph imagery through May 9 will be pivotal for resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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