Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August 2026, faces a fragmented electoral field ahead of the Knesset vote. It submitted an independent slate on September 7 after rejecting merger overtures from the Religious Zionist Party, heightening concerns over right-wing vote splitting. Recent polls after list submissions show mixed results, with the party projected at or near the 3.25% threshold in several surveys (often equating to four seats) but failing to register or appearing lower in others amid competition from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and additional new lists. Trader consensus on sub-3.25% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid consolidation of support for a party formed weeks before the deadline, combined with broader polling volatility in a crowded race.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano<2.5% 28%
5%+ 28%
3.25-4% 23%
2.5-3.25% 21%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
51%
2.5-3.25%
21%
3.25-4%
23%
4-5%
20%
5%+
25%
<2.5% 28%
5%+ 28%
3.25-4% 23%
2.5-3.25% 21%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
$20 Wol.
51%
2.5-3.25%
$0 Wol.
21%
3.25-4%
$0 Wol.
23%
4-5%
$13 Wol.
20%
5%+
$32 Wol.
25%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August 2026, faces a fragmented electoral field ahead of the Knesset vote. It submitted an independent slate on September 7 after rejecting merger overtures from the Religious Zionist Party, heightening concerns over right-wing vote splitting. Recent polls after list submissions show mixed results, with the party projected at or near the 3.25% threshold in several surveys (often equating to four seats) but failing to register or appearing lower in others amid competition from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and additional new lists. Trader consensus on sub-3.25% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid consolidation of support for a party formed weeks before the deadline, combined with broader polling volatility in a crowded race.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$66Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August 2026, faces a fragmented electoral field ahead of the Knesset vote. It submitted an independent slate on September 7 after rejecting merger overtures from the Religious Zionist Party, heightening concerns over right-wing vote splitting. Recent polls after list submissions show mixed results, with the party projected at or near the 3.25% threshold in several surveys (often equating to four seats) but failing to register or appearing lower in others amid competition from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and additional new lists. Trader consensus on sub-3.25% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid consolidation of support for a party formed weeks before the deadline, combined with broader polling volatility in a crowded race.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Wolumen
$66Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August 2026, faces a fragmented electoral field ahead of the Knesset vote. It submitted an independent slate on September 7 after rejecting merger overtures from the Religious Zionist Party, heightening concerns over right-wing vote splitting. Recent polls after list submissions show mixed results, with the party projected at or near the 3.25% threshold in several surveys (often equating to four seats) but failing to register or appearing lower in others amid competition from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and additional new lists. Trader consensus on sub-3.25% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid consolidation of support for a party formed weeks before the deadline, combined with broader polling volatility in a crowded race.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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