**Recent forecast updates and seasonal cooling position the 11°C-or-below outcome as the market leader.** Helsinki’s climatological average overnight low for August 31 is approximately 11.8°C, with radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies often driving minima lower when winds remain light. Current model guidance from sources including the Met Office and regional ensembles shows daytime highs near 18–20°C and nighttime lows around 14–15°C for the 31st, accompanied by a chance of showers that can suppress temperatures. However, August 2026 has run slightly cooler than the 1991–2020 baseline, and small shifts in steering patterns or clearer breaks could allow greater nocturnal cooling. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 11°C or below, incorporates this tail risk alongside the central tendency near 14–15°C, while warmer outcomes above 17°C carry lower market weight consistent with the approaching autumnal transition. New model runs and official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Helsinki on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on August 31?
11°C or below 96%
12°C 48%
13°C 48%
16°C 48%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
96%
12°C
48%
13°C
48%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
48%
17°C
43%
18°C
2%
19°C
8%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
46%
11°C or below 96%
12°C 48%
13°C 48%
16°C 48%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Wol.
96%
12°C
$0 Wol.
48%
13°C
$0 Wol.
48%
14°C
$0 Wol.
26%
15°C
$0 Wol.
26%
16°C
$0 Wol.
48%
17°C
$0 Wol.
43%
18°C
$0 Wol.
2%
19°C
$0 Wol.
8%
20°C
$0 Wol.
8%
21°C or higher
$0 Wol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast updates and seasonal cooling position the 11°C-or-below outcome as the market leader.** Helsinki’s climatological average overnight low for August 31 is approximately 11.8°C, with radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies often driving minima lower when winds remain light. Current model guidance from sources including the Met Office and regional ensembles shows daytime highs near 18–20°C and nighttime lows around 14–15°C for the 31st, accompanied by a chance of showers that can suppress temperatures. However, August 2026 has run slightly cooler than the 1991–2020 baseline, and small shifts in steering patterns or clearer breaks could allow greater nocturnal cooling. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 11°C or below, incorporates this tail risk alongside the central tendency near 14–15°C, while warmer outcomes above 17°C carry lower market weight consistent with the approaching autumnal transition. New model runs and official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast updates and seasonal cooling position the 11°C-or-below outcome as the market leader.** Helsinki’s climatological average overnight low for August 31 is approximately 11.8°C, with radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies often driving minima lower when winds remain light. Current model guidance from sources including the Met Office and regional ensembles shows daytime highs near 18–20°C and nighttime lows around 14–15°C for the 31st, accompanied by a chance of showers that can suppress temperatures. However, August 2026 has run slightly cooler than the 1991–2020 baseline, and small shifts in steering patterns or clearer breaks could allow greater nocturnal cooling. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 11°C or below, incorporates this tail risk alongside the central tendency near 14–15°C, while warmer outcomes above 17°C carry lower market weight consistent with the approaching autumnal transition. New model runs and official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecast updates and seasonal cooling position the 11°C-or-below outcome as the market leader.** Helsinki’s climatological average overnight low for August 31 is approximately 11.8°C, with radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies often driving minima lower when winds remain light. Current model guidance from sources including the Met Office and regional ensembles shows daytime highs near 18–20°C and nighttime lows around 14–15°C for the 31st, accompanied by a chance of showers that can suppress temperatures. However, August 2026 has run slightly cooler than the 1991–2020 baseline, and small shifts in steering patterns or clearer breaks could allow greater nocturnal cooling. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49.5% implied probability for 11°C or below, incorporates this tail risk alongside the central tendency near 14–15°C, while warmer outcomes above 17°C carry lower market weight consistent with the approaching autumnal transition. New model runs and official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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