Current short-range forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and Met Office guidance point to a mild overnight period for London on September 4, with lows centered near 13–16 °C under strengthening southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and patchy rain that limits radiational cooling. These conditions favor the market’s leading 17 °C outcome (41.5 % implied probability) while keeping 16 °C and 18 °C close behind, as model consensus shows little support for deeper drops below 13 °C or spikes above 20 °C. Recent runs have trended slightly warmer overnight than earlier guidance, reflecting a slower-moving Atlantic front and higher dew points that suppress minimum temperatures. Traders are monitoring the next Met Office and ECMWF updates for any shift in cloud or wind timing that could alter the final recorded low at official stations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in London on September 4?
Lowest temperature in London on September 4?
17°C 36%
12°C or below 30%
13°C 29%
14°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
30%
13°C
29%
14°C
28%
15°C
27%
16°C
26%
17°C
42%
18°C
25%
19°C
17%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
2%
17°C 36%
12°C or below 30%
13°C 29%
14°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Wol.
30%
13°C
$0 Wol.
29%
14°C
$0 Wol.
28%
15°C
$0 Wol.
27%
16°C
$0 Wol.
26%
17°C
$141 Wol.
42%
18°C
$7 Wol.
25%
19°C
$29 Wol.
17%
20°C
$20 Wol.
2%
21°C
$75 Wol.
2%
22°C or higher
$0 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and Met Office guidance point to a mild overnight period for London on September 4, with lows centered near 13–16 °C under strengthening southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and patchy rain that limits radiational cooling. These conditions favor the market’s leading 17 °C outcome (41.5 % implied probability) while keeping 16 °C and 18 °C close behind, as model consensus shows little support for deeper drops below 13 °C or spikes above 20 °C. Recent runs have trended slightly warmer overnight than earlier guidance, reflecting a slower-moving Atlantic front and higher dew points that suppress minimum temperatures. Traders are monitoring the next Met Office and ECMWF updates for any shift in cloud or wind timing that could alter the final recorded low at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$272Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and Met Office guidance point to a mild overnight period for London on September 4, with lows centered near 13–16 °C under strengthening southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and patchy rain that limits radiational cooling. These conditions favor the market’s leading 17 °C outcome (41.5 % implied probability) while keeping 16 °C and 18 °C close behind, as model consensus shows little support for deeper drops below 13 °C or spikes above 20 °C. Recent runs have trended slightly warmer overnight than earlier guidance, reflecting a slower-moving Atlantic front and higher dew points that suppress minimum temperatures. Traders are monitoring the next Met Office and ECMWF updates for any shift in cloud or wind timing that could alter the final recorded low at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$272Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and Met Office guidance point to a mild overnight period for London on September 4, with lows centered near 13–16 °C under strengthening southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and patchy rain that limits radiational cooling. These conditions favor the market’s leading 17 °C outcome (41.5 % implied probability) while keeping 16 °C and 18 °C close behind, as model consensus shows little support for deeper drops below 13 °C or spikes above 20 °C. Recent runs have trended slightly warmer overnight than earlier guidance, reflecting a slower-moving Atlantic front and higher dew points that suppress minimum temperatures. Traders are monitoring the next Met Office and ECMWF updates for any shift in cloud or wind timing that could alter the final recorded low at official stations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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