**Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread rain associated with easterly flow are keeping overnight lows in Taipei tightly clustered in the mid-20s °C for September 3.** Multiple forecast models show the minimum temperature settling near 24–26 °C, with some runs indicating 23–27 °C depending on the exact timing and intensity of showers. Heavy cloudiness and elevated dew points (often near 25–26 °C) limit radiational cooling after sunset, while light-to-moderate easterly winds prevent rapid temperature drops. This pattern aligns with typical early-September subtropical conditions in northern Taiwan, where monsoon moisture and frequent convective activity moderate diurnal ranges. The market’s near-even distribution across 23–28 °C reflects this narrow forecast envelope and the inherent uncertainty in precise overnight minima amid variable rainfall timing. Higher or lower extremes carry low implied probability because current model consensus and climatological baselines (September average lows near 23–24 °C) make outliers unlikely without a major shift in steering patterns or moisture. Updated model runs and official Central Weather Administration guidance will be the key near-term catalysts for any probability adjustments.