Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election show Labour maintaining a narrow lead over National in party vote, with the two major parties clustered around 30% while New Zealand First, the Greens, and ACT sit in the 8–11% range. This positioning has elevated the implied probability that National finishes second, as traders weigh the governing coalition’s modest seat projections against Labour’s recent gains in surveys from RNZ-Reid Research and others. Persistent cost-of-living pressures and softening support for the incumbent National-led administration have contributed to the tightening contest between the two largest parties, while smaller parties remain well behind on current polling averages. The race remains sensitive to further shifts in voter intention before election day.