Trader sentiment favors mild highs of 62-65°F for Chicago on March 25, with 62-63°F leading at 18% implied probability, propelled by NOAA's latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting southerly winds advecting warm air masses above seasonal norms. These models cluster daytime peaks around 63°F under partly cloudy skies, differentiating from adjacent 64-65°F odds via subtle variances in boundary layer mixing and peak afternoon insolation. Cooler 54-55°F support at 13% stems from Euro model outliers anticipating a stalled frontal boundary enhancing Lake Michigan moderation, while historical March volatility—averaging 46°F highs—underscores uncertainty ahead of final 00z runs resolving diurnal maximums.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chicago em 25 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Chicago em 25 de março?
64-65°F 17%
58-59°F 14%
54-55°F 13%
66-67°F 12%
49°F ou menos
1%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
10%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
18%
58-59°F
13%
60-61°F
11%
62-63°F
18%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
12%
68°F ou superior
2%
64-65°F 17%
58-59°F 14%
54-55°F 13%
66-67°F 12%
49°F ou menos
1%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
10%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
18%
58-59°F
13%
60-61°F
11%
62-63°F
18%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
12%
68°F ou superior
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors mild highs of 62-65°F for Chicago on March 25, with 62-63°F leading at 18% implied probability, propelled by NOAA's latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting southerly winds advecting warm air masses above seasonal norms. These models cluster daytime peaks around 63°F under partly cloudy skies, differentiating from adjacent 64-65°F odds via subtle variances in boundary layer mixing and peak afternoon insolation. Cooler 54-55°F support at 13% stems from Euro model outliers anticipating a stalled frontal boundary enhancing Lake Michigan moderation, while historical March volatility—averaging 46°F highs—underscores uncertainty ahead of final 00z runs resolving diurnal maximums.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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