Trader sentiment clusters around 42-45°F for Chicago's March 23 high temperature, led by the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing 44°F amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF show means of 43-45°F, with a tight ±1-2°F spread differentiating the top bins—cooler solutions tied to lingering cloud cover from an upstream low, while warmer runs factor in diurnal heating under a building ridge. Historical late-March averages hover near 44°F, but current 500-mb charts reveal jet stream positioning that caps extremes, yielding slim odds below 40°F or above 52°F. Watch evening model updates for potential shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chicago em 23 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Chicago em 23 de março?
42-43°F 24%
46-47°F 21.9%
44-45°F 21%
48-49°F 11.3%
35°F ou menos
1%
36-37°F
2%
38-39°F
2%
40-41°F
8%
42-43°F
24%
44-45°F
21%
46-47°F
22%
48-49°F
11%
50-51°F
7%
52-53°F
3%
54°F ou mais
1%
42-43°F 24%
46-47°F 21.9%
44-45°F 21%
48-49°F 11.3%
35°F ou menos
1%
36-37°F
2%
38-39°F
2%
40-41°F
8%
42-43°F
24%
44-45°F
21%
46-47°F
22%
48-49°F
11%
50-51°F
7%
52-53°F
3%
54°F ou mais
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around 42-45°F for Chicago's March 23 high temperature, led by the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing 44°F amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF show means of 43-45°F, with a tight ±1-2°F spread differentiating the top bins—cooler solutions tied to lingering cloud cover from an upstream low, while warmer runs factor in diurnal heating under a building ridge. Historical late-March averages hover near 44°F, but current 500-mb charts reveal jet stream positioning that caps extremes, yielding slim odds below 40°F or above 52°F. Watch evening model updates for potential shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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