Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast clustering around 15–16°C for London's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest Met Office and BBC Weather guidance showing highs of 14–16°C amid mild southwesterly winds and overcast skies with possible sunny intervals. Overcast conditions and light showers limit peak insolation, capping temperatures below 17°C despite above-average early April norms of about 13°C, while urban heat island effects and any afternoon cloud breaks could nudge toward 16°C or higher. Model ensembles highlight uncertainty in cloud evolution and wind gusts up to 40 mph, with final observations from London City Airport resolving the market; expect refined updates from the Met Office throughout April 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in London on April 4?
Highest temperature in London on April 4?
15°C 40%
16°C 33%
17°C or higher 21%
14°C 11%
$42,755 Vol.
$42,755 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
11%
15°C
40%
16°C
33%
17°C or higher
21%
15°C 40%
16°C 33%
17°C or higher 21%
14°C 11%
$42,755 Vol.
$42,755 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
11%
15°C
40%
16°C
33%
17°C or higher
21%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast clustering around 15–16°C for London's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest Met Office and BBC Weather guidance showing highs of 14–16°C amid mild southwesterly winds and overcast skies with possible sunny intervals. Overcast conditions and light showers limit peak insolation, capping temperatures below 17°C despite above-average early April norms of about 13°C, while urban heat island effects and any afternoon cloud breaks could nudge toward 16°C or higher. Model ensembles highlight uncertainty in cloud evolution and wind gusts up to 40 mph, with final observations from London City Airport resolving the market; expect refined updates from the Met Office throughout April 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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