Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts peg Lucknow's March 22 maximum temperature near 29-30°C, anchoring the market's 49.5% implied probability for 30°C or below as the leading outcome, with 31°C at 22.5%. This aligns with seasonal norms—historical March highs average 29-31°C amid lingering winter influences like cooler northerly winds and moderate soil moisture from recent rains. Trader sentiment has shifted after yesterday's observed max of 28.5°C and GFS model runs showing no heat surge, suppressing odds for 32°C+ (under 18% combined). Uncertainty lingers from potential afternoon cloud cover, but consensus favors subdued heating over typical pre-monsoon spikes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
30°C or below 51%
31°C 23%
33°C 9.3%
32°C 9%
$18,821 Vol.
$18,821 Vol.
30°C or below
51%
31°C
23%
32°C
9%
33°C
9%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
30°C or below 51%
31°C 23%
33°C 9.3%
32°C 9%
$18,821 Vol.
$18,821 Vol.
30°C or below
51%
31°C
23%
32°C
9%
33°C
9%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts peg Lucknow's March 22 maximum temperature near 29-30°C, anchoring the market's 49.5% implied probability for 30°C or below as the leading outcome, with 31°C at 22.5%. This aligns with seasonal norms—historical March highs average 29-31°C amid lingering winter influences like cooler northerly winds and moderate soil moisture from recent rains. Trader sentiment has shifted after yesterday's observed max of 28.5°C and GFS model runs showing no heat surge, suppressing odds for 32°C+ (under 18% combined). Uncertainty lingers from potential afternoon cloud cover, but consensus favors subdued heating over typical pre-monsoon spikes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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