Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to a peak temperature of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 6, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, southerly winds, and high pressure supporting daytime heating under low humidity. Current runs show afternoon highs near 34–37°C, with minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns that limit rapid changes. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 37°C and 36°C outcomes, as traders incorporate short-range model agreement while noting typical uncertainty in maximum temperature resolution near the daily peak. Historical September averages near 29°C provide context, but the ongoing early-month warmth supports the elevated probabilities. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 6 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 6 de setembro?
37°C 50%
36°C 31%
38°C 19%
35°C 4%
NOVO
NOVO
6 set 2026
33°C ou menos
<1%
34°C
3%
35°C
4%
36°C
31%
37°C
50%
38°C
19%
39°C
3%
40°C
2%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C ou mais
<1%
37°C 50%
36°C 31%
38°C 19%
35°C 4%
NOVO
NOVO
6 set 2026
33°C ou menos
$33 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$0 Vol.
3%
35°C
$68 Vol.
4%
36°C
$346 Vol.
31%
37°C
$103 Vol.
50%
38°C
$264 Vol.
19%
39°C
$5 Vol.
3%
40°C
$5 Vol.
2%
41°C
$0 Vol.
2%
42°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
43°C ou mais
$36 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to a peak temperature of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 6, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, southerly winds, and high pressure supporting daytime heating under low humidity. Current runs show afternoon highs near 34–37°C, with minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns that limit rapid changes. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 37°C and 36°C outcomes, as traders incorporate short-range model agreement while noting typical uncertainty in maximum temperature resolution near the daily peak. Historical September averages near 29°C provide context, but the ongoing early-month warmth supports the elevated probabilities. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$860Data de Término
6 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to a peak temperature of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 6, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, southerly winds, and high pressure supporting daytime heating under low humidity. Current runs show afternoon highs near 34–37°C, with minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns that limit rapid changes. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 37°C and 36°C outcomes, as traders incorporate short-range model agreement while noting typical uncertainty in maximum temperature resolution near the daily peak. Historical September averages near 29°C provide context, but the ongoing early-month warmth supports the elevated probabilities. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$860Data de Término
6 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to a peak temperature of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 6, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, southerly winds, and high pressure supporting daytime heating under low humidity. Current runs show afternoon highs near 34–37°C, with minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns that limit rapid changes. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 37°C and 36°C outcomes, as traders incorporate short-range model agreement while noting typical uncertainty in maximum temperature resolution near the daily peak. Historical September averages near 29°C provide context, but the ongoing early-month warmth supports the elevated probabilities. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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