Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward a Munich high of 13°C on March 25 (26.5% implied probability), with 14°C (22.5%) and 15°C (18.5%) close behind, reflecting a mild Atlantic airflow amid a building high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent 12Z runs show slight warming from increased insolation under partly cloudy skies, differentiating 12-16°C outcomes via low-level temperature advection and boundary layer mixing—northerly shear could cap at 12°C, while urban heat island effects boost toward 15°C+. Against March climatology averaging 10-12°C highs, uncertainty in frontal timing keeps 16°C+ odds low at 17% combined; watch 00Z updates for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Munique no dia 25 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Munique no dia 25 de março?
13°C 27%
14°C 23%
15°C 20%
12°C 19%
9°C ou menos
2%
10°C
12%
11°C
15%
12°C
19%
13°C
27%
14°C
23%
15°C
20%
16°C
18%
17°C
9%
18°C
1%
19°C ou mais
1%
13°C 27%
14°C 23%
15°C 20%
12°C 19%
9°C ou menos
2%
10°C
12%
11°C
15%
12°C
19%
13°C
27%
14°C
23%
15°C
20%
16°C
18%
17°C
9%
18°C
1%
19°C ou mais
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward a Munich high of 13°C on March 25 (26.5% implied probability), with 14°C (22.5%) and 15°C (18.5%) close behind, reflecting a mild Atlantic airflow amid a building high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent 12Z runs show slight warming from increased insolation under partly cloudy skies, differentiating 12-16°C outcomes via low-level temperature advection and boundary layer mixing—northerly shear could cap at 12°C, while urban heat island effects boost toward 15°C+. Against March climatology averaging 10-12°C highs, uncertainty in frontal timing keeps 16°C+ odds low at 17% combined; watch 00Z updates for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions