Idaho's entrenched Republican voter base and Jim Risch's status as a three-term incumbent have anchored trader consensus at 92% for a Republican victory in the November 2026 Senate race. Risch secured his party's nomination in the May primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against limited challengers, while Democrat David Roth, repeating as his party's nominee, trails substantially in available polling. Ratings from major forecasters classify the contest as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the state's voting patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic Senate wins since 1974. Factors that could still shift probabilities include a major scandal, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic surge altering turnout dynamics in this low-competition environment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$17,475 Vol.
$17,475 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
92%
Democrata
7%
$17,475 Vol.
$17,475 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$12,254 Vol.
92%
Democrata
$5,221 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho's entrenched Republican voter base and Jim Risch's status as a three-term incumbent have anchored trader consensus at 92% for a Republican victory in the November 2026 Senate race. Risch secured his party's nomination in the May primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against limited challengers, while Democrat David Roth, repeating as his party's nominee, trails substantially in available polling. Ratings from major forecasters classify the contest as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the state's voting patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic Senate wins since 1974. Factors that could still shift probabilities include a major scandal, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic surge altering turnout dynamics in this low-competition environment.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$17,475Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho's entrenched Republican voter base and Jim Risch's status as a three-term incumbent have anchored trader consensus at 92% for a Republican victory in the November 2026 Senate race. Risch secured his party's nomination in the May primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against limited challengers, while Democrat David Roth, repeating as his party's nominee, trails substantially in available polling. Ratings from major forecasters classify the contest as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the state's voting patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic Senate wins since 1974. Factors that could still shift probabilities include a major scandal, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic surge altering turnout dynamics in this low-competition environment.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$17,475Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho's entrenched Republican voter base and Jim Risch's status as a three-term incumbent have anchored trader consensus at 92% for a Republican victory in the November 2026 Senate race. Risch secured his party's nomination in the May primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against limited challengers, while Democrat David Roth, repeating as his party's nominee, trails substantially in available polling. Ratings from major forecasters classify the contest as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the state's voting patterns and the absence of competitive Democratic Senate wins since 1974. Factors that could still shift probabilities include a major scandal, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic surge altering turnout dynamics in this low-competition environment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions