Ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes have suppressed Iran's missile forces by targeting launchers and disrupting resupply, as reported in early April analyses, limiting Tehran's capacity for large-scale direct attacks. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted recent drone strikes on Gulf states, signaling proxy escalation amid stalled ceasefire talks. Iran rejected US proposals on April 6 while issuing warnings of "crushing retaliation" against further Israeli operations targeting Hezbollah, including threats to Israeli energy infrastructure and US assets. President Trump's repeated ultimatums to bomb Iranian power plants and oil facilities unless a nuclear or Strait deal emerges heighten risks of miscalculation before April 30 resolution. No confirmed direct Iranian strikes on Israel have materialized since initial exchanges, with diplomatic channels strained.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAção militar iraniana contra ___ até 30 de abril?
Ação militar iraniana contra ___ até 30 de abril?
$4,088,695 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Iraque
100%
Bahrein
37%
Catar
19%
Jordânia
7%
Síria
4%
Chipre
3%
Azerbaijão
3%
Líbano
3%
Omã
3%
Afeganistão
3%
Turquia
2%
Paquistão
2%
Iêmen
1%
Geórgia
1%
Armênia
1%
Reino Unido
1%
Ucrânia
1%
Polônia
1%
Itália
1%
Índia
1%
França
1%
Alemanha
1%
Hungria
1%
Espanha
1%
$4,088,695 Vol.
Iraque
$2,029,115 Vol.
100%
Bahrein
$114,907 Vol.
37%
Catar
$80,937 Vol.
19%
Jordânia
$11,937 Vol.
7%
Síria
$12,372 Vol.
4%
Chipre
$18,673 Vol.
3%
Azerbaijão
$38,473 Vol.
3%
Líbano
$42,098 Vol.
3%
Omã
$65,840 Vol.
3%
Afeganistão
$1,729 Vol.
3%
Turquia
$19,974 Vol.
2%
Paquistão
$13,877 Vol.
2%
Iêmen
$8,383 Vol.
1%
Geórgia
$7,518 Vol.
1%
Armênia
$3,570 Vol.
1%
Reino Unido
$25,205 Vol.
1%
Ucrânia
$14,548 Vol.
1%
Polônia
$35,880 Vol.
1%
Itália
$1,386 Vol.
1%
Índia
$19,286 Vol.
1%
França
$31,222 Vol.
1%
Alemanha
$18,523 Vol.
1%
Hungria
$14,579 Vol.
1%
Espanha
$7,385 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes have suppressed Iran's missile forces by targeting launchers and disrupting resupply, as reported in early April analyses, limiting Tehran's capacity for large-scale direct attacks. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted recent drone strikes on Gulf states, signaling proxy escalation amid stalled ceasefire talks. Iran rejected US proposals on April 6 while issuing warnings of "crushing retaliation" against further Israeli operations targeting Hezbollah, including threats to Israeli energy infrastructure and US assets. President Trump's repeated ultimatums to bomb Iranian power plants and oil facilities unless a nuclear or Strait deal emerges heighten risks of miscalculation before April 30 resolution. No confirmed direct Iranian strikes on Israel have materialized since initial exchanges, with diplomatic channels strained.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$4,088,695Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Sim
Contestado
Resultado proposto: Sim
Contestado
Revisão final
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes have suppressed Iran's missile forces by targeting launchers and disrupting resupply, as reported in early April analyses, limiting Tehran's capacity for large-scale direct attacks. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted recent drone strikes on Gulf states, signaling proxy escalation amid stalled ceasefire talks. Iran rejected US proposals on April 6 while issuing warnings of "crushing retaliation" against further Israeli operations targeting Hezbollah, including threats to Israeli energy infrastructure and US assets. President Trump's repeated ultimatums to bomb Iranian power plants and oil facilities unless a nuclear or Strait deal emerges heighten risks of miscalculation before April 30 resolution. No confirmed direct Iranian strikes on Israel have materialized since initial exchanges, with diplomatic channels strained.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$4,088,695Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Sim
Contestado
Resultado proposto: Sim
Contestado
Revisão final
Ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes have suppressed Iran's missile forces by targeting launchers and disrupting resupply, as reported in early April analyses, limiting Tehran's capacity for large-scale direct attacks. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted recent drone strikes on Gulf states, signaling proxy escalation amid stalled ceasefire talks. Iran rejected US proposals on April 6 while issuing warnings of "crushing retaliation" against further Israeli operations targeting Hezbollah, including threats to Israeli energy infrastructure and US assets. President Trump's repeated ultimatums to bomb Iranian power plants and oil facilities unless a nuclear or Strait deal emerges heighten risks of miscalculation before April 30 resolution. No confirmed direct Iranian strikes on Israel have materialized since initial exchanges, with diplomatic channels strained.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions