Recent official forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 9 will likely reach 14–17°C under clear skies and light northeast winds promoting radiative cooling after earlier showers. This aligns with September climatology (average low near 16.5°C) amid a broader monthly warmth anomaly of about +4.7°C that has kept recent minima elevated. Trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for 19°C and 47.5% for 18°C appears driven by model spread on exact timing of clearing and potential urban heat-island effects, while lower outcomes like 17°C or below carry only single-digit odds due to limited cooling potential from current high pressure and dry conditions. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Madrid a 9 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Madrid a 9 de setembro?
18°C 99%
17°C 18%
16°C 1.0%
15°C ou menos <1%
$2,946 Vol.
$2,946 Vol.
9 set 2026
15°C ou menos
Não
16°C
Não
17°C
Não
18°C
Sim
19°C
Não
20°C
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C
Não
24°C
Não
25°C ou mais
Não
18°C 99%
17°C 18%
16°C 1.0%
15°C ou menos <1%
$2,946 Vol.
$2,946 Vol.
9 set 2026
15°C ou menos
$120 Vol.
Não
16°C
$48 Vol.
Não
17°C
$41 Vol.
Não
18°C
$55 Vol.
Sim
19°C
$314 Vol.
Não
20°C
$174 Vol.
Não
21°C
$444 Vol.
Não
22°C
$68 Vol.
Não
23°C
$86 Vol.
Não
24°C
$276 Vol.
Não
25°C ou mais
$1,321 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 9 will likely reach 14–17°C under clear skies and light northeast winds promoting radiative cooling after earlier showers. This aligns with September climatology (average low near 16.5°C) amid a broader monthly warmth anomaly of about +4.7°C that has kept recent minima elevated. Trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for 19°C and 47.5% for 18°C appears driven by model spread on exact timing of clearing and potential urban heat-island effects, while lower outcomes like 17°C or below carry only single-digit odds due to limited cooling potential from current high pressure and dry conditions. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,946Data de Término
9 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 9 will likely reach 14–17°C under clear skies and light northeast winds promoting radiative cooling after earlier showers. This aligns with September climatology (average low near 16.5°C) amid a broader monthly warmth anomaly of about +4.7°C that has kept recent minima elevated. Trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for 19°C and 47.5% for 18°C appears driven by model spread on exact timing of clearing and potential urban heat-island effects, while lower outcomes like 17°C or below carry only single-digit odds due to limited cooling potential from current high pressure and dry conditions. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,946Data de Término
9 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Recent official forecasts from AEMET and global models indicate Madrid's overnight low on September 9 will likely reach 14–17°C under clear skies and light northeast winds promoting radiative cooling after earlier showers. This aligns with September climatology (average low near 16.5°C) amid a broader monthly warmth anomaly of about +4.7°C that has kept recent minima elevated. Trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for 19°C and 47.5% for 18°C appears driven by model spread on exact timing of clearing and potential urban heat-island effects, while lower outcomes like 17°C or below carry only single-digit odds due to limited cooling potential from current high pressure and dry conditions. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions