Val Hoyle’s strong position as the Democratic incumbent in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+6 partisan voting index and repeated Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. She secured the nomination comfortably in the May primary and previously defeated DeSpain by roughly eight points in 2024. DeSpain, the Republican nominee in a rematch, has raised competitive funds and highlights issues such as costs and public safety, yet the district’s voter registration and historical results limit her path. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Hoyle aligns with these structural factors. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually high turnout among nonaffiliated voters could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this district two months before the November general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOR-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
OR-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$21,760 Vol.
$21,760 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Val Hoyle (D)
94%
Monique DeSpain (R)
6%
$21,760 Vol.
$21,760 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Val Hoyle (D)
$14,789 Vol.
94%
Monique DeSpain (R)
$6,972 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Val Hoyle’s strong position as the Democratic incumbent in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+6 partisan voting index and repeated Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. She secured the nomination comfortably in the May primary and previously defeated DeSpain by roughly eight points in 2024. DeSpain, the Republican nominee in a rematch, has raised competitive funds and highlights issues such as costs and public safety, yet the district’s voter registration and historical results limit her path. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Hoyle aligns with these structural factors. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually high turnout among nonaffiliated voters could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this district two months before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$21,760Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Val Hoyle’s strong position as the Democratic incumbent in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+6 partisan voting index and repeated Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. She secured the nomination comfortably in the May primary and previously defeated DeSpain by roughly eight points in 2024. DeSpain, the Republican nominee in a rematch, has raised competitive funds and highlights issues such as costs and public safety, yet the district’s voter registration and historical results limit her path. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Hoyle aligns with these structural factors. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually high turnout among nonaffiliated voters could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this district two months before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,760Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Val Hoyle’s strong position as the Democratic incumbent in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+6 partisan voting index and repeated Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. She secured the nomination comfortably in the May primary and previously defeated DeSpain by roughly eight points in 2024. DeSpain, the Republican nominee in a rematch, has raised competitive funds and highlights issues such as costs and public safety, yet the district’s voter registration and historical results limit her path. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Hoyle aligns with these structural factors. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually high turnout among nonaffiliated voters could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this district two months before the November general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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