Trader consensus on Peru's presidential election first-round voter turnout heavily favors the 70-75% bin at 79.3% implied probability, reflecting widespread logistical breakdowns during the April 12-13 voting that suppressed participation below compulsory voting norms. Ballot delivery failures affected over 52,000 voters in Lima—home to 30% of the electorate—prompting a one-day extension, while power outages, new software glitches, and late-opening stations created massive queues and discouraged turnout amid public disillusionment from a decade of political instability with eight presidents. Historical first-round turnout reached about 74% in 2021 despite similar apathy; preliminary ONPE data with 92% actas counted shows around 68-70% participation, but traders anticipate upward revisions to 70-75% as rural tallies finalize, with official resolution pending full verification.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado70-75% 82.6%
75-80% 21%
80-85% 2.0%
> 85% 1.2%
$128,569 Vol.
$128,569 Vol.
12 abr 2026
< 70%
1%
70-75%
73%
75-80%
21%
80-85%
2%
> 85%
1%
70-75% 82.6%
75-80% 21%
80-85% 2.0%
> 85% 1.2%
$128,569 Vol.
$128,569 Vol.
12 abr 2026
< 70%
$19,061 Vol.
1%
70-75%
$35,557 Vol.
73%
75-80%
$20,267 Vol.
21%
80-85%
$45,684 Vol.
2%
> 85%
$8,030 Vol.
1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus on Peru's presidential election first-round voter turnout heavily favors the 70-75% bin at 79.3% implied probability, reflecting widespread logistical breakdowns during the April 12-13 voting that suppressed participation below compulsory voting norms. Ballot delivery failures affected over 52,000 voters in Lima—home to 30% of the electorate—prompting a one-day extension, while power outages, new software glitches, and late-opening stations created massive queues and discouraged turnout amid public disillusionment from a decade of political instability with eight presidents. Historical first-round turnout reached about 74% in 2021 despite similar apathy; preliminary ONPE data with 92% actas counted shows around 68-70% participation, but traders anticipate upward revisions to 70-75% as rural tallies finalize, with official resolution pending full verification.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
Volume
$128,569Data de Término
12 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus on Peru's presidential election first-round voter turnout heavily favors the 70-75% bin at 79.3% implied probability, reflecting widespread logistical breakdowns during the April 12-13 voting that suppressed participation below compulsory voting norms. Ballot delivery failures affected over 52,000 voters in Lima—home to 30% of the electorate—prompting a one-day extension, while power outages, new software glitches, and late-opening stations created massive queues and discouraged turnout amid public disillusionment from a decade of political instability with eight presidents. Historical first-round turnout reached about 74% in 2021 despite similar apathy; preliminary ONPE data with 92% actas counted shows around 68-70% participation, but traders anticipate upward revisions to 70-75% as rural tallies finalize, with official resolution pending full verification.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$128,569Data de Término
12 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Peru's presidential election first-round voter turnout heavily favors the 70-75% bin at 79.3% implied probability, reflecting widespread logistical breakdowns during the April 12-13 voting that suppressed participation below compulsory voting norms. Ballot delivery failures affected over 52,000 voters in Lima—home to 30% of the electorate—prompting a one-day extension, while power outages, new software glitches, and late-opening stations created massive queues and discouraged turnout amid public disillusionment from a decade of political instability with eight presidents. Historical first-round turnout reached about 74% in 2021 despite similar apathy; preliminary ONPE data with 92% actas counted shows around 68-70% participation, but traders anticipate upward revisions to 70-75% as rural tallies finalize, with official resolution pending full verification.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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