President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to suspected Russian and Chinese activities has shaped trader focus on whether explosive tests will occur. The United States maintains its 1992 moratorium, with National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines estimated at up to 36 months for underground tests, while New START's February 2026 expiration and U.S. accusations of low-yield Chinese tests using decoupling have heightened arms-control tensions. Congressional funding for stockpile stewardship and SLCM-N development continues without authorizing yield-producing explosions, and no tests have taken place as of mid-2026. Upcoming budget and policy decisions could influence test readiness if diplomatic or verification concerns escalate.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear dos EUA por...?
Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?
$770,068 Vol.
30 dez 2026
30 de setembro de 2026
1%
31 de dezembro de 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
30 de setembro de 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 de dezembro de 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to suspected Russian and Chinese activities has shaped trader focus on whether explosive tests will occur. The United States maintains its 1992 moratorium, with National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines estimated at up to 36 months for underground tests, while New START's February 2026 expiration and U.S. accusations of low-yield Chinese tests using decoupling have heightened arms-control tensions. Congressional funding for stockpile stewardship and SLCM-N development continues without authorizing yield-producing explosions, and no tests have taken place as of mid-2026. Upcoming budget and policy decisions could influence test readiness if diplomatic or verification concerns escalate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$770,068Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to suspected Russian and Chinese activities has shaped trader focus on whether explosive tests will occur. The United States maintains its 1992 moratorium, with National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines estimated at up to 36 months for underground tests, while New START's February 2026 expiration and U.S. accusations of low-yield Chinese tests using decoupling have heightened arms-control tensions. Congressional funding for stockpile stewardship and SLCM-N development continues without authorizing yield-producing explosions, and no tests have taken place as of mid-2026. Upcoming budget and policy decisions could influence test readiness if diplomatic or verification concerns escalate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$770,068Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing in response to suspected Russian and Chinese activities has shaped trader focus on whether explosive tests will occur. The United States maintains its 1992 moratorium, with National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines estimated at up to 36 months for underground tests, while New START's February 2026 expiration and U.S. accusations of low-yield Chinese tests using decoupling have heightened arms-control tensions. Congressional funding for stockpile stewardship and SLCM-N development continues without authorizing yield-producing explosions, and no tests have taken place as of mid-2026. Upcoming budget and policy decisions could influence test readiness if diplomatic or verification concerns escalate.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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