Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted ECB Governing Council signals toward a data-dependent tightening bias. The deposit facility rate has remained at 2.00% through the April 30 meeting, with incoming data showing persistent price pressures and officials such as Bundesbank President Nagel highlighting the potential for hikes if projections do not improve. Professional forecaster surveys and market-implied expectations now price one or two 25-basis-point increases this year rather than cuts, reflecting verified upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth from commodity disruptions. Trader consensus on no rate cut in 2026 aligns with this combination of confirmed inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though rapid de-escalation in energy markets or softer core readings could still alter the path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$28,063 Объем
$28,063 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$28,063 Объем
$28,063 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted ECB Governing Council signals toward a data-dependent tightening bias. The deposit facility rate has remained at 2.00% through the April 30 meeting, with incoming data showing persistent price pressures and officials such as Bundesbank President Nagel highlighting the potential for hikes if projections do not improve. Professional forecaster surveys and market-implied expectations now price one or two 25-basis-point increases this year rather than cuts, reflecting verified upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth from commodity disruptions. Trader consensus on no rate cut in 2026 aligns with this combination of confirmed inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though rapid de-escalation in energy markets or softer core readings could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Объем
$28,063Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted ECB Governing Council signals toward a data-dependent tightening bias. The deposit facility rate has remained at 2.00% through the April 30 meeting, with incoming data showing persistent price pressures and officials such as Bundesbank President Nagel highlighting the potential for hikes if projections do not improve. Professional forecaster surveys and market-implied expectations now price one or two 25-basis-point increases this year rather than cuts, reflecting verified upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth from commodity disruptions. Trader consensus on no rate cut in 2026 aligns with this combination of confirmed inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though rapid de-escalation in energy markets or softer core readings could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$28,063Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted ECB Governing Council signals toward a data-dependent tightening bias. The deposit facility rate has remained at 2.00% through the April 30 meeting, with incoming data showing persistent price pressures and officials such as Bundesbank President Nagel highlighting the potential for hikes if projections do not improve. Professional forecaster surveys and market-implied expectations now price one or two 25-basis-point increases this year rather than cuts, reflecting verified upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth from commodity disruptions. Trader consensus on no rate cut in 2026 aligns with this combination of confirmed inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though rapid de-escalation in energy markets or softer core readings could still alter the path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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