Elevated euro-area inflation projections, recently revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting and signal data-dependent tightening. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted risks of further hikes if price pressures persist, aligning with market-implied expectations for at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year. Professional forecaster surveys and futures pricing now reflect this shift away from easing, with the wisdom of crowds in current odds assigning low probability to any rate cut by year-end despite uncertainty over energy de-escalation or softer core readings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$28,063 Объем
$28,063 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$28,063 Объем
$28,063 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, recently revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting and signal data-dependent tightening. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted risks of further hikes if price pressures persist, aligning with market-implied expectations for at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year. Professional forecaster surveys and futures pricing now reflect this shift away from easing, with the wisdom of crowds in current odds assigning low probability to any rate cut by year-end despite uncertainty over energy de-escalation or softer core readings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Объем
$28,063Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, recently revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting and signal data-dependent tightening. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted risks of further hikes if price pressures persist, aligning with market-implied expectations for at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year. Professional forecaster surveys and futures pricing now reflect this shift away from easing, with the wisdom of crowds in current odds assigning low probability to any rate cut by year-end despite uncertainty over energy de-escalation or softer core readings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$28,063Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation projections, recently revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April 2026 meeting and signal data-dependent tightening. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted risks of further hikes if price pressures persist, aligning with market-implied expectations for at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year. Professional forecaster surveys and futures pricing now reflect this shift away from easing, with the wisdom of crowds in current odds assigning low probability to any rate cut by year-end despite uncertainty over energy de-escalation or softer core readings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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