Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran conflict, have driven euro area headline inflation above 3% in August 2026 through elevated energy prices, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate 25 basis points in June to 2.25% and signal another move to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. Staff projections show 2026 inflation averaging 3.0%, with resilient growth near potential and contained core readings near 2.4% supporting a hold at the upper end of the neutral range through year-end rather than easing. Market-implied odds reflect this hawkish tilt, with traders pricing limited further tightening but no cuts amid upside inflation risks. A sharp decline in energy costs or unexpected labor market softening could still open the door to earlier policy relief.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
7% вероятность
$31,875 Объем
$31,875 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
7% вероятность
$31,875 Объем
$31,875 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran conflict, have driven euro area headline inflation above 3% in August 2026 through elevated energy prices, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate 25 basis points in June to 2.25% and signal another move to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. Staff projections show 2026 inflation averaging 3.0%, with resilient growth near potential and contained core readings near 2.4% supporting a hold at the upper end of the neutral range through year-end rather than easing. Market-implied odds reflect this hawkish tilt, with traders pricing limited further tightening but no cuts amid upside inflation risks. A sharp decline in energy costs or unexpected labor market softening could still open the door to earlier policy relief.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Объем
$31,875Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran conflict, have driven euro area headline inflation above 3% in August 2026 through elevated energy prices, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate 25 basis points in June to 2.25% and signal another move to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. Staff projections show 2026 inflation averaging 3.0%, with resilient growth near potential and contained core readings near 2.4% supporting a hold at the upper end of the neutral range through year-end rather than easing. Market-implied odds reflect this hawkish tilt, with traders pricing limited further tightening but no cuts amid upside inflation risks. A sharp decline in energy costs or unexpected labor market softening could still open the door to earlier policy relief.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$31,875Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran conflict, have driven euro area headline inflation above 3% in August 2026 through elevated energy prices, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate 25 basis points in June to 2.25% and signal another move to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. Staff projections show 2026 inflation averaging 3.0%, with resilient growth near potential and contained core readings near 2.4% supporting a hold at the upper end of the neutral range through year-end rather than easing. Market-implied odds reflect this hawkish tilt, with traders pricing limited further tightening but no cuts amid upside inflation risks. A sharp decline in energy costs or unexpected labor market softening could still open the door to earlier policy relief.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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