**The Central Elections Committee voted 19-5 on September 23, 2026, to disqualify Joint List MK Ofer Cassif from the October 27 Knesset election on grounds of negating Israel’s existence as a Jewish and democratic state or supporting armed struggle against it.** The Likud petition received cross-party support, including from Yisrael Beytenu and Blue and White, but the decision is not final. Under Basic Law: The Knesset, individual candidate disqualifications require Supreme Court approval before taking effect. Israeli law sets a high threshold for such bans, and the court has overturned prior attempts to bar Cassif, including the 2019 case. The Attorney General and State Attorney have both assessed that the submitted evidence does not meet the legal standard for disqualification. Cassif has stated he expects the court to reverse the committee’s ruling, consistent with precedent. Traders therefore assign an 85% probability that Cassif will not be effectively banned and will remain eligible to run, viewing the committee vote as a political step that is unlikely to survive judicial review ahead of the election. The outcome hinges on the Supreme Court’s timeline and standards in the coming weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
15% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
27 окт. 2026 г.
Да
15% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
27 окт. 2026 г.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ofer Cassif is effectively banned from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ofer Cassif from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election. This includes, but is not limited to: Ofer Cassif being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration as a candidate, removed from a candidates’ list or from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. The disqualification of the candidates’ list on which Ofer Cassif stands will qualify only where it also renders Ofer Cassif ineligible to be elected.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ofer Cassif is otherwise reinstated and permitted to stand, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ofer Cassif to voluntarily withdraw from or decline to contest the election will not qualify. Resignation, removal from office, arrest, or detention will not qualify, provided Ofer Cassif remains eligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ofer Cassif, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The Central Elections Committee voted 19-5 on September 23, 2026, to disqualify Joint List MK Ofer Cassif from the October 27 Knesset election on grounds of negating Israel’s existence as a Jewish and democratic state or supporting armed struggle against it.** The Likud petition received cross-party support, including from Yisrael Beytenu and Blue and White, but the decision is not final. Under Basic Law: The Knesset, individual candidate disqualifications require Supreme Court approval before taking effect.
Israeli law sets a high threshold for such bans, and the court has overturned prior attempts to bar Cassif, including the 2019 case. The Attorney General and State Attorney have both assessed that the submitted evidence does not meet the legal standard for disqualification. Cassif has stated he expects the court to reverse the committee’s ruling, consistent with precedent.
Traders therefore assign an 85% probability that Cassif will not be effectively banned and will remain eligible to run, viewing the committee vote as a political step that is unlikely to survive judicial review ahead of the election. The outcome hinges on the Supreme Court’s timeline and standards in the coming weeks.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ofer Cassif is effectively banned from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ofer Cassif from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election. This includes, but is not limited to: Ofer Cassif being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration as a candidate, removed from a candidates’ list or from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. The disqualification of the candidates’ list on which Ofer Cassif stands will qualify only where it also renders Ofer Cassif ineligible to be elected.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ofer Cassif is otherwise reinstated and permitted to stand, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ofer Cassif to voluntarily withdraw from or decline to contest the election will not qualify. Resignation, removal from office, arrest, or detention will not qualify, provided Ofer Cassif remains eligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ofer Cassif, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ofer Cassif is effectively banned from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ofer Cassif from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election. This includes, but is not limited to: Ofer Cassif being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration as a candidate, removed from a candidates’ list or from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. The disqualification of the candidates’ list on which Ofer Cassif stands will qualify only where it also renders Ofer Cassif ineligible to be elected.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ofer Cassif is otherwise reinstated and permitted to stand, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ofer Cassif to voluntarily withdraw from or decline to contest the election will not qualify. Resignation, removal from office, arrest, or detention will not qualify, provided Ofer Cassif remains eligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ofer Cassif, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 23, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Объем
$44Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 23, 2026, 4:10 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ofer Cassif is effectively banned from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ofer Cassif from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election. This includes, but is not limited to: Ofer Cassif being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration as a candidate, removed from a candidates’ list or from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. The disqualification of the candidates’ list on which Ofer Cassif stands will qualify only where it also renders Ofer Cassif ineligible to be elected.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ofer Cassif is otherwise reinstated and permitted to stand, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ofer Cassif to voluntarily withdraw from or decline to contest the election will not qualify. Resignation, removal from office, arrest, or detention will not qualify, provided Ofer Cassif remains eligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ofer Cassif, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The Central Elections Committee voted 19-5 on September 23, 2026, to disqualify Joint List MK Ofer Cassif from the October 27 Knesset election on grounds of negating Israel’s existence as a Jewish and democratic state or supporting armed struggle against it.** The Likud petition received cross-party support, including from Yisrael Beytenu and Blue and White, but the decision is not final. Under Basic Law: The Knesset, individual candidate disqualifications require Supreme Court approval before taking effect.
Israeli law sets a high threshold for such bans, and the court has overturned prior attempts to bar Cassif, including the 2019 case. The Attorney General and State Attorney have both assessed that the submitted evidence does not meet the legal standard for disqualification. Cassif has stated he expects the court to reverse the committee’s ruling, consistent with precedent.
Traders therefore assign an 85% probability that Cassif will not be effectively banned and will remain eligible to run, viewing the committee vote as a political step that is unlikely to survive judicial review ahead of the election. The outcome hinges on the Supreme Court’s timeline and standards in the coming weeks.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ofer Cassif is effectively banned from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ofer Cassif from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election. This includes, but is not limited to: Ofer Cassif being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration as a candidate, removed from a candidates’ list or from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. The disqualification of the candidates’ list on which Ofer Cassif stands will qualify only where it also renders Ofer Cassif ineligible to be elected.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ofer Cassif is otherwise reinstated and permitted to stand, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ofer Cassif to voluntarily withdraw from or decline to contest the election will not qualify. Resignation, removal from office, arrest, or detention will not qualify, provided Ofer Cassif remains eligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ofer Cassif, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ofer Cassif is effectively banned from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ofer Cassif from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election. This includes, but is not limited to: Ofer Cassif being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration as a candidate, removed from a candidates’ list or from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. The disqualification of the candidates’ list on which Ofer Cassif stands will qualify only where it also renders Ofer Cassif ineligible to be elected.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ofer Cassif is otherwise reinstated and permitted to stand, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Ofer Cassif to voluntarily withdraw from or decline to contest the election will not qualify. Resignation, removal from office, arrest, or detention will not qualify, provided Ofer Cassif remains eligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ofer Cassif, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 23, 2026, 4:10 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...**The Central Elections Committee voted 19-5 on September 23, 2026, to disqualify Joint List MK Ofer Cassif from the October 27 Knesset election on grounds of negating Israel’s existence as a Jewish and democratic state or supporting armed struggle against it.** The Likud petition received cross-party support, including from Yisrael Beytenu and Blue and White, but the decision is not final. Under Basic Law: The Knesset, individual candidate disqualifications require Supreme Court approval before taking effect. Israeli law sets a high threshold for such bans, and the court has overturned prior attempts to bar Cassif, including the 2019 case. The Attorney General and State Attorney have both assessed that the submitted evidence does not meet the legal standard for disqualification. Cassif has stated he expects the court to reverse the committee’s ruling, consistent with precedent. Traders therefore assign an 85% probability that Cassif will not be effectively banned and will remain eligible to run, viewing the committee vote as a political step that is unlikely to survive judicial review ahead of the election. The outcome hinges on the Supreme Court’s timeline and standards in the coming weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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