Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that “The Democrats” will not be effectively banned from Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election because Central Elections Committee disqualification attempts face near-certain reversal by the Supreme Court under established precedent. Recent committee votes targeting the party and Arab lists reflect coalition pressure, yet judicial review has historically restored eligibility on due-process and equality grounds. The short window before the vote further limits procedural maneuvers that could survive scrutiny. Only an unprecedented court upholding or last-minute statutory change would alter the outcome, scenarios traders view as remote given institutional patterns and ongoing legal challenges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
3% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
27 окт. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
27 окт. 2026 г.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that “The Democrats” will not be effectively banned from Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election because Central Elections Committee disqualification attempts face near-certain reversal by the Supreme Court under established precedent. Recent committee votes targeting the party and Arab lists reflect coalition pressure, yet judicial review has historically restored eligibility on due-process and equality grounds. The short window before the vote further limits procedural maneuvers that could survive scrutiny. Only an unprecedented court upholding or last-minute statutory change would alter the outcome, scenarios traders view as remote given institutional patterns and ongoing legal challenges.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 23, 2026, 4:09 PM ET
Объем
$85Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 23, 2026, 4:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that “The Democrats” will not be effectively banned from Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election because Central Elections Committee disqualification attempts face near-certain reversal by the Supreme Court under established precedent. Recent committee votes targeting the party and Arab lists reflect coalition pressure, yet judicial review has historically restored eligibility on due-process and equality grounds. The short window before the vote further limits procedural maneuvers that could survive scrutiny. Only an unprecedented court upholding or last-minute statutory change would alter the outcome, scenarios traders view as remote given institutional patterns and ongoing legal challenges.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 23, 2026, 4:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability that “The Democrats” will not be effectively banned from Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election because Central Elections Committee disqualification attempts face near-certain reversal by the Supreme Court under established precedent. Recent committee votes targeting the party and Arab lists reflect coalition pressure, yet judicial review has historically restored eligibility on due-process and equality grounds. The short window before the vote further limits procedural maneuvers that could survive scrutiny. Only an unprecedented court upholding or last-minute statutory change would alter the outcome, scenarios traders view as remote given institutional patterns and ongoing legal challenges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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