Atsumi Harasawa leads the market at 55% as the only candidate with explicit backing from the Liberal Democratic Party and local business groups, positioning her as the frontrunner in the special election triggered by former mayor Takeharu Yamanaka’s August resignation after a third-party report confirmed power harassment. The remaining vote is fragmented across three other declared independents, each backed by different parties or organizations: Kazuma Nakatani at 18% with Constitutional Democratic Party support, Yuka Asaka at 12.5% as the Japanese Communist Party candidate, and Atsushi Fukuyama at 10.5% with Sanseito endorsement. This split, combined with the short campaign window ahead of the October 18 vote, keeps the contest competitive and limits any single challenger’s ability to consolidate opposition support before official campaigning begins on October 4.