Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most Democratic-leaning seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the general-election vote in 2024 and faces only token Republican opposition from George McDermott, while multiple Democratic primary challengers compete ahead of the June 23, 2026, primary. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the market’s 92.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical turnout patterns and the district’s structural composition limit realistic pathways for an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMD-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
MD-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$27,357 Объем
$27,357 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
92%
Республиканская партия
6%
$27,357 Объем
$27,357 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$8,107 Объем
92%
Республиканская партия
$19,251 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most Democratic-leaning seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the general-election vote in 2024 and faces only token Republican opposition from George McDermott, while multiple Democratic primary challengers compete ahead of the June 23, 2026, primary. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the market’s 92.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical turnout patterns and the district’s structural composition limit realistic pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$27,357Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most Democratic-leaning seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the general-election vote in 2024 and faces only token Republican opposition from George McDermott, while multiple Democratic primary challengers compete ahead of the June 23, 2026, primary. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the market’s 92.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical turnout patterns and the district’s structural composition limit realistic pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$27,357Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most Democratic-leaning seats in the House, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the general-election vote in 2024 and faces only token Republican opposition from George McDermott, while multiple Democratic primary challengers compete ahead of the June 23, 2026, primary. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the market’s 92.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical turnout patterns and the district’s structural composition limit realistic pathways for an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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