Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent partisan lean, his long incumbency since 2009, and strong primary performance with over 93 percent support. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, emerged from a fragmented GOP field but faces structural barriers in a state where Republicans have not won a Senate seat since 2002. Forecasts rate the contest Solid Democratic, projecting Merkley around 60 percent of the vote. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, reflecting limited paths for an upset. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or an unexpected national political shift could still influence outcomes before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат штата Орегон
Победитель выборов в Сенат штата Орегон
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ
97%
Республиканец
2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ
$3,648 Объем
97%
Республиканец
$3,046 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent partisan lean, his long incumbency since 2009, and strong primary performance with over 93 percent support. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, emerged from a fragmented GOP field but faces structural barriers in a state where Republicans have not won a Senate seat since 2002. Forecasts rate the contest Solid Democratic, projecting Merkley around 60 percent of the vote. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, reflecting limited paths for an upset. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or an unexpected national political shift could still influence outcomes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Объем
$6,694Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent partisan lean, his long incumbency since 2009, and strong primary performance with over 93 percent support. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, emerged from a fragmented GOP field but faces structural barriers in a state where Republicans have not won a Senate seat since 2002. Forecasts rate the contest Solid Democratic, projecting Merkley around 60 percent of the vote. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, reflecting limited paths for an upset. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or an unexpected national political shift could still influence outcomes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$6,694Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent partisan lean, his long incumbency since 2009, and strong primary performance with over 93 percent support. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator, emerged from a fragmented GOP field but faces structural barriers in a state where Republicans have not won a Senate seat since 2002. Forecasts rate the contest Solid Democratic, projecting Merkley around 60 percent of the vote. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, reflecting limited paths for an upset. Late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or an unexpected national political shift could still influence outcomes before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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