Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's handling of the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, driven by mounting pressure ahead of the April 21 Banking Committee hearing. Republican senators, including Thom Tillis, have conditioned support for Warsh—Trump's hawkish monetary policy pick—on swift probe resolution to enable installation before Powell's May 15 term expires. Recent DOJ site visit found no criminal evidence, tempering escalation despite Trump's defense of the inquiry and firing threats, while Powell vows to stay until a successor is seated, heightening urgency for de-escalation to avoid interim leadership risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 окт. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 окт. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's handling of the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, driven by mounting pressure ahead of the April 21 Banking Committee hearing. Republican senators, including Thom Tillis, have conditioned support for Warsh—Trump's hawkish monetary policy pick—on swift probe resolution to enable installation before Powell's May 15 term expires. Recent DOJ site visit found no criminal evidence, tempering escalation despite Trump's defense of the inquiry and firing threats, while Powell vows to stay until a successor is seated, heightening urgency for de-escalation to avoid interim leadership risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Объем
$148Дата окончания
31 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's handling of the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, driven by mounting pressure ahead of the April 21 Banking Committee hearing. Republican senators, including Thom Tillis, have conditioned support for Warsh—Trump's hawkish monetary policy pick—on swift probe resolution to enable installation before Powell's May 15 term expires. Recent DOJ site visit found no criminal evidence, tempering escalation despite Trump's defense of the inquiry and firing threats, while Powell vows to stay until a successor is seated, heightening urgency for de-escalation to avoid interim leadership risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$148Дата окончания
31 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's handling of the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, driven by mounting pressure ahead of the April 21 Banking Committee hearing. Republican senators, including Thom Tillis, have conditioned support for Warsh—Trump's hawkish monetary policy pick—on swift probe resolution to enable installation before Powell's May 15 term expires. Recent DOJ site visit found no criminal evidence, tempering escalation despite Trump's defense of the inquiry and firing threats, while Powell vows to stay until a successor is seated, heightening urgency for de-escalation to avoid interim leadership risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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