No identified near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst remain on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring systems. Ongoing close-approach data through late August show only distant passes by meter- to decameter-scale bodies, none forecast to impact. Historical bolide records from the CNEOS Fireball database indicate events at or above this energy threshold occur infrequently, supporting the market-implied 74.5% probability for No. Continued surveillance updates and any new catalogued objects could alter odds before year-end resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
26% โอกาส
$312,607 ปริมาณ
$312,607 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
26% โอกาส
$312,607 ปริมาณ
$312,607 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No identified near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst remain on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring systems. Ongoing close-approach data through late August show only distant passes by meter- to decameter-scale bodies, none forecast to impact. Historical bolide records from the CNEOS Fireball database indicate events at or above this energy threshold occur infrequently, supporting the market-implied 74.5% probability for No. Continued surveillance updates and any new catalogued objects could alter odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$312,607วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No identified near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst remain on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring systems. Ongoing close-approach data through late August show only distant passes by meter- to decameter-scale bodies, none forecast to impact. Historical bolide records from the CNEOS Fireball database indicate events at or above this energy threshold occur infrequently, supporting the market-implied 74.5% probability for No. Continued surveillance updates and any new catalogued objects could alter odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$312,607วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...No identified near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst remain on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring systems. Ongoing close-approach data through late August show only distant passes by meter- to decameter-scale bodies, none forecast to impact. Historical bolide records from the CNEOS Fireball database indicate events at or above this energy threshold occur infrequently, supporting the market-implied 74.5% probability for No. Continued surveillance updates and any new catalogued objects could alter odds before year-end resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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