Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 18?
21°C 100%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$107,616 ปริมาณ
$107,616 ปริมาณ
Apr 18, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
21°C 100%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$107,616 ปริมาณ
$107,616 ปริมาณ
Apr 18, 2026
13°C or below
$2,664 ปริมาณ
No
14°C
$2,437 ปริมาณ
No
15°C
$1,580 ปริมาณ
No
16°C
$1,779 ปริมาณ
No
17°C
$2,640 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$5,039 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$8,464 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$14,266 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$32,225 ปริมาณ
Yes
22°C
$17,066 ปริมาณ
No
23°C or higher
$19,457 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$107,616วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$107,616วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data showing midday peaks at this level under mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds. Hourly readings from central Tokyo stations, including the official observatory, confirm no exceedance, aligning with historical April averages of 19–20°C and current atmospheric patterns favoring stable mildness over warming. Final resolution hinges on JMA's end-of-day summary, typically released shortly after midnight. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or a minor data revision from peripheral sensors, though cooling evening trends make higher outcomes unlikely.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย