**Northwest monsoon flow and persistent cloud cover from a regional low-pressure trough are the dominant near-term drivers keeping Hong Kong’s overnight minimum on 4 September clustered around 24–26 °C.** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model runs show northwest to northwesterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale advecting slightly cooler, drier air southward while widespread stratiform cloud and scattered showers limit radiational cooling. Dew points near 22–24 °C and relative humidity remaining above 80 % overnight further compress the diurnal range, preventing the minimum from dropping much below 24 °C or rising above 26 °C. With no tropical cyclone or strong cold surge expected in the 48-hour window, the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes reflects the limited spread in current dynamical forecasts and the narrow historical range for early-September minima under similar synoptic regimes. Updated model runs and the next HKO bulletin will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
25°C 36%
26°C 32%
24°C 23%
27°C 17%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
11%
21°C
14%
22°C
15%
23°C
16%
24°C
23%
25°C
36%
26°C
32%
27°C
17%
28°C
15%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
11%
25°C 36%
26°C 32%
24°C 23%
27°C 17%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
$75 ปริมาณ
11%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
22°C
$0 ปริมาณ
15%
23°C
$0 ปริมาณ
16%
24°C
$0 ปริมาณ
23%
25°C
$574 ปริมาณ
36%
26°C
$20 ปริมาณ
32%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
17%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
15%
29°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
30°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Northwest monsoon flow and persistent cloud cover from a regional low-pressure trough are the dominant near-term drivers keeping Hong Kong’s overnight minimum on 4 September clustered around 24–26 °C.** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model runs show northwest to northwesterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale advecting slightly cooler, drier air southward while widespread stratiform cloud and scattered showers limit radiational cooling. Dew points near 22–24 °C and relative humidity remaining above 80 % overnight further compress the diurnal range, preventing the minimum from dropping much below 24 °C or rising above 26 °C. With no tropical cyclone or strong cold surge expected in the 48-hour window, the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes reflects the limited spread in current dynamical forecasts and the narrow historical range for early-September minima under similar synoptic regimes. Updated model runs and the next HKO bulletin will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$669วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Northwest monsoon flow and persistent cloud cover from a regional low-pressure trough are the dominant near-term drivers keeping Hong Kong’s overnight minimum on 4 September clustered around 24–26 °C.** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model runs show northwest to northwesterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale advecting slightly cooler, drier air southward while widespread stratiform cloud and scattered showers limit radiational cooling. Dew points near 22–24 °C and relative humidity remaining above 80 % overnight further compress the diurnal range, preventing the minimum from dropping much below 24 °C or rising above 26 °C. With no tropical cyclone or strong cold surge expected in the 48-hour window, the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes reflects the limited spread in current dynamical forecasts and the narrow historical range for early-September minima under similar synoptic regimes. Updated model runs and the next HKO bulletin will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$669วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Northwest monsoon flow and persistent cloud cover from a regional low-pressure trough are the dominant near-term drivers keeping Hong Kong’s overnight minimum on 4 September clustered around 24–26 °C.** Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and ensemble model runs show northwest to northwesterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale advecting slightly cooler, drier air southward while widespread stratiform cloud and scattered showers limit radiational cooling. Dew points near 22–24 °C and relative humidity remaining above 80 % overnight further compress the diurnal range, preventing the minimum from dropping much below 24 °C or rising above 26 °C. With no tropical cyclone or strong cold surge expected in the 48-hour window, the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these three outcomes reflects the limited spread in current dynamical forecasts and the narrow historical range for early-September minima under similar synoptic regimes. Updated model runs and the next HKO bulletin will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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