Recent Met Office and ECMWF model consensus indicates a minimum temperature of 14°C for London on August 8 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure that permits efficient nocturnal radiative cooling without significant advection of warmer air. This aligns with observed overnight trends from the prior 48 hours, where temperatures fell steadily from daytime peaks near 28°C to the low-to-mid teens by dawn. Historical August climatology for the region supports typical overnight minima of 14–16°C under similar anticyclonic conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability for exactly 14°C reflects traders' assessment of this tight forecast envelope, with resolution likely tied to official station readings (e.g., Heathrow or St James’s Park). Realistic challenges include an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a shift to stronger winds that could limit cooling to 15°C or higher, or a sharper radiative drop under perfectly clear, calm conditions pushing the minimum to 13°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in London on August 8?
Lowest temperature in London on August 8?
14°C 99.4%
13°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
$18,244 ปริมาณ
$18,244 ปริมาณ
Aug 8, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
99%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
14°C 99.4%
13°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
$18,244 ปริมาณ
$18,244 ปริมาณ
Aug 8, 2026
10°C or below
$262 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$546 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$637 ปริมาณ
<1%
13°C
$1,823 ปริมาณ
<1%
14°C
$2,685 ปริมาณ
99%
15°C
$7,101 ปริมาณ
<1%
16°C
$2,898 ปริมาณ
<1%
17°C
$1,139 ปริมาณ
<1%
18°C
$540 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$358 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C or higher
$255 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ECMWF model consensus indicates a minimum temperature of 14°C for London on August 8 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure that permits efficient nocturnal radiative cooling without significant advection of warmer air. This aligns with observed overnight trends from the prior 48 hours, where temperatures fell steadily from daytime peaks near 28°C to the low-to-mid teens by dawn. Historical August climatology for the region supports typical overnight minima of 14–16°C under similar anticyclonic conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability for exactly 14°C reflects traders' assessment of this tight forecast envelope, with resolution likely tied to official station readings (e.g., Heathrow or St James’s Park). Realistic challenges include an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a shift to stronger winds that could limit cooling to 15°C or higher, or a sharper radiative drop under perfectly clear, calm conditions pushing the minimum to 13°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,244วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ECMWF model consensus indicates a minimum temperature of 14°C for London on August 8 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure that permits efficient nocturnal radiative cooling without significant advection of warmer air. This aligns with observed overnight trends from the prior 48 hours, where temperatures fell steadily from daytime peaks near 28°C to the low-to-mid teens by dawn. Historical August climatology for the region supports typical overnight minima of 14–16°C under similar anticyclonic conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability for exactly 14°C reflects traders' assessment of this tight forecast envelope, with resolution likely tied to official station readings (e.g., Heathrow or St James’s Park). Realistic challenges include an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a shift to stronger winds that could limit cooling to 15°C or higher, or a sharper radiative drop under perfectly clear, calm conditions pushing the minimum to 13°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,244วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office and ECMWF model consensus indicates a minimum temperature of 14°C for London on August 8 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure that permits efficient nocturnal radiative cooling without significant advection of warmer air. This aligns with observed overnight trends from the prior 48 hours, where temperatures fell steadily from daytime peaks near 28°C to the low-to-mid teens by dawn. Historical August climatology for the region supports typical overnight minima of 14–16°C under similar anticyclonic conditions. The 99.5% market-implied probability for exactly 14°C reflects traders' assessment of this tight forecast envelope, with resolution likely tied to official station readings (e.g., Heathrow or St James’s Park). Realistic challenges include an unexpected increase in cloud cover or a shift to stronger winds that could limit cooling to 15°C or higher, or a sharper radiative drop under perfectly clear, calm conditions pushing the minimum to 13°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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