Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF, updated within the past 48 hours, form the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring 18°C or 19°C minimums on August 10, with combined implied probabilities near 68%. A warm air mass lingering after early-August heat has limited radiative cooling under mostly clear conditions, while light winds and moderate humidity keep overnight lows from dropping to typical mid-August climatological values near 15–16°C. Model spread remains modest but centers on these thresholds, with any increase in cloud cover or stronger nocturnal mixing the key variables that could shift resolution toward 17°C or below. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period will likely refine these probabilities further.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Paris on August 10?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 10?
18°C 37%
19°C 32%
17°C 16%
20°C 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 10, 2026
16°C or below
5%
17°C
16%
18°C
37%
19°C
32%
20°C
14%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
18°C 37%
19°C 32%
17°C 16%
20°C 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 10, 2026
16°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
17°C
$40 ปริมาณ
16%
18°C
$39 ปริมาณ
37%
19°C
$11 ปริมาณ
32%
20°C
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
21°C
$34 ปริมาณ
4%
22°C
$44 ปริมาณ
4%
23°C
$44 ปริมาณ
1%
24°C
$32 ปริมาณ
1%
25°C
$27 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C or higher
$34 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF, updated within the past 48 hours, form the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring 18°C or 19°C minimums on August 10, with combined implied probabilities near 68%. A warm air mass lingering after early-August heat has limited radiative cooling under mostly clear conditions, while light winds and moderate humidity keep overnight lows from dropping to typical mid-August climatological values near 15–16°C. Model spread remains modest but centers on these thresholds, with any increase in cloud cover or stronger nocturnal mixing the key variables that could shift resolution toward 17°C or below. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period will likely refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$304วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF, updated within the past 48 hours, form the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring 18°C or 19°C minimums on August 10, with combined implied probabilities near 68%. A warm air mass lingering after early-August heat has limited radiative cooling under mostly clear conditions, while light winds and moderate humidity keep overnight lows from dropping to typical mid-August climatological values near 15–16°C. Model spread remains modest but centers on these thresholds, with any increase in cloud cover or stronger nocturnal mixing the key variables that could shift resolution toward 17°C or below. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period will likely refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$304วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF, updated within the past 48 hours, form the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring 18°C or 19°C minimums on August 10, with combined implied probabilities near 68%. A warm air mass lingering after early-August heat has limited radiative cooling under mostly clear conditions, while light winds and moderate humidity keep overnight lows from dropping to typical mid-August climatological values near 15–16°C. Model spread remains modest but centers on these thresholds, with any increase in cloud cover or stronger nocturnal mixing the key variables that could shift resolution toward 17°C or below. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period will likely refine these probabilities further.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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