Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.4% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor market data showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000 with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March decision to hold rates steady, reinforced by minutes released April 8 indicating broad support amid reaccelerating price pressures, has quelled cut expectations, with major banks like Wells Fargo and JPMorgan now forecasting no reductions through 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting April indicators like retail sales or ISM data, though limited time until resolution caps volatility.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFed desisyon sa Abril?
Fed desisyon sa Abril?
Walang pagbabago 99.4%
25 bps na pagbabawas <1%
25+ bps na pagtaas <1%
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps <1%
$110,475,366 Vol.
$110,475,366 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps
<1%
25 bps na pagbabawas
<1%
Walang pagbabago
99%
25+ bps na pagtaas
<1%
Walang pagbabago 99.4%
25 bps na pagbabawas <1%
25+ bps na pagtaas <1%
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps <1%
$110,475,366 Vol.
$110,475,366 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps
$41,758,079 Vol.
<1%
25 bps na pagbabawas
$21,408,228 Vol.
<1%
Walang pagbabago
$22,003,477 Vol.
99%
25+ bps na pagtaas
$25,316,150 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.4% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor market data showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000 with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March decision to hold rates steady, reinforced by minutes released April 8 indicating broad support amid reaccelerating price pressures, has quelled cut expectations, with major banks like Wells Fargo and JPMorgan now forecasting no reductions through 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting April indicators like retail sales or ISM data, though limited time until resolution caps volatility.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$110,475,366Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.4% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor market data showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000 with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March decision to hold rates steady, reinforced by minutes released April 8 indicating broad support amid reaccelerating price pressures, has quelled cut expectations, with major banks like Wells Fargo and JPMorgan now forecasting no reductions through 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting April indicators like retail sales or ISM data, though limited time until resolution caps volatility.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$110,475,366Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.4% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor market data showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000 with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's March decision to hold rates steady, reinforced by minutes released April 8 indicating broad support amid reaccelerating price pressures, has quelled cut expectations, with major banks like Wells Fargo and JPMorgan now forecasting no reductions through 2026. Realistic challenges include a surprise downturn in pre-meeting April indicators like retail sales or ISM data, though limited time until resolution caps volatility.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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