Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by resilient labor market data and sticky but energy-led inflation pressures. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—while unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling balance; the March CPI jumped to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% gasoline surge, yet core trends remain above the 2% target without prompting immediate action per recent Fed minutes and speeches. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects caution amid geopolitical risks, though hotter-than-expected pre-meeting PCE or retail sales could marginally challenge the hold by fueling hike speculation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFed desisyon sa Abril?
Fed desisyon sa Abril?
Walang pagbabago 99.3%
25 bps na pagbabawas <1%
25+ bps na pagtaas <1%
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps <1%
$107,728,245 Vol.
$107,728,245 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps
<1%
25 bps na pagbabawas
<1%
Walang pagbabago
99%
25+ bps na pagtaas
<1%
Walang pagbabago 99.3%
25 bps na pagbabawas <1%
25+ bps na pagtaas <1%
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps <1%
$107,728,245 Vol.
$107,728,245 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps
$41,038,635 Vol.
<1%
25 bps na pagbabawas
$20,798,292 Vol.
<1%
Walang pagbabago
$21,106,292 Vol.
99%
25+ bps na pagtaas
$24,785,379 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by resilient labor market data and sticky but energy-led inflation pressures. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—while unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling balance; the March CPI jumped to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% gasoline surge, yet core trends remain above the 2% target without prompting immediate action per recent Fed minutes and speeches. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects caution amid geopolitical risks, though hotter-than-expected pre-meeting PCE or retail sales could marginally challenge the hold by fueling hike speculation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$107,728,245Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by resilient labor market data and sticky but energy-led inflation pressures. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—while unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling balance; the March CPI jumped to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% gasoline surge, yet core trends remain above the 2% target without prompting immediate action per recent Fed minutes and speeches. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects caution amid geopolitical risks, though hotter-than-expected pre-meeting PCE or retail sales could marginally challenge the hold by fueling hike speculation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$107,728,245Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by resilient labor market data and sticky but energy-led inflation pressures. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—while unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling balance; the March CPI jumped to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% gasoline surge, yet core trends remain above the 2% target without prompting immediate action per recent Fed minutes and speeches. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects caution amid geopolitical risks, though hotter-than-expected pre-meeting PCE or retail sales could marginally challenge the hold by fueling hike speculation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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