The near-certain 97.9% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell avoids jail before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice probe into Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and related congressional testimony, which produced no indictments or evidence of criminal conduct. As a sitting Fed governor through January 2028, Powell faces no active legal proceedings, consistent with the historical absence of criminal charges against any Federal Reserve chair and the institutional safeguards around monetary policy independence. Traders price in this baseline given the lack of ongoing regulatory or prosecutorial actions. Remote tail risks remain, including hypothetical future political escalations or unforeseen disclosures, though these would require unprecedented developments to alter the current consensus backed by real capital at risk.