The dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge’s finding of essentially zero evidence of wrongdoing related to headquarters renovation testimony and cost overruns exceeding $2.4 billion, underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability of a “No” outcome. With no active indictments, subpoenas, or pending charges and Powell’s term concluding amid a transition to successor Kevin Warsh, traders see negligible odds of incarceration before year-end 2026. The episode reflected tensions over monetary policy independence but was referred to the Fed’s inspector general, removing any near-term legal threat. Tail risks such as an unforeseen restart of proceedings or unrelated allegations remain remote, offering no realistic pathway to conviction or imprisonment under current conditions.