Trader consensus heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with the official target of 4.5–5% set during March's Two Sessions amid property sector headwinds and global trade risks. The IMF's April 14 forecast revision to 4.4%—down slightly from prior estimates—bolsters this positioning, citing stimulus measures offset by geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices and exports. A Reuters poll on April 13 anticipates Q1 GDP rebounding to 4.8% year-on-year from Q4 2025's 4.5%, supporting early momentum via strong Jan-Feb industrial output and foreign trade, though full-year projections at 4.6% reflect fiscal policy moderation and structural challenges. Upcoming National Bureau of Statistics Q1 data release could shift probabilities.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi%4,0–%5,0 71%
%5,0–%6,0 24.0%
%1,0'ın altında 1.4%
%3,0–%4,0 1.2%
$246,465 Hac.
$246,465 Hac.
31 Oca 2026
%1,0'ın altında
1%
%1,0–%2,0
1%
%2,0–%3,0
1%
%3,0–%4,0
1%
%4,0–%5,0
71%
%5,0–%6,0
24%
%6,0-%7,0
1%
%7,0–%8,0
<1%
%8,0–%9,0
1%
%9,0+
<1%
%4,0–%5,0 71%
%5,0–%6,0 24.0%
%1,0'ın altında 1.4%
%3,0–%4,0 1.2%
$246,465 Hac.
$246,465 Hac.
31 Oca 2026
%1,0'ın altında
$21,362 Hac.
1%
%1,0–%2,0
$27,285 Hac.
1%
%2,0–%3,0
$6,529 Hac.
1%
%3,0–%4,0
$9,734 Hac.
1%
%4,0–%5,0
$34,880 Hac.
71%
%5,0–%6,0
$21,788 Hac.
24%
%6,0-%7,0
$19,485 Hac.
1%
%7,0–%8,0
$29,681 Hac.
<1%
%8,0–%9,0
$6,842 Hac.
1%
%9,0+
$68,894 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with the official target of 4.5–5% set during March's Two Sessions amid property sector headwinds and global trade risks. The IMF's April 14 forecast revision to 4.4%—down slightly from prior estimates—bolsters this positioning, citing stimulus measures offset by geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices and exports. A Reuters poll on April 13 anticipates Q1 GDP rebounding to 4.8% year-on-year from Q4 2025's 4.5%, supporting early momentum via strong Jan-Feb industrial output and foreign trade, though full-year projections at 4.6% reflect fiscal policy moderation and structural challenges. Upcoming National Bureau of Statistics Q1 data release could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Hacim
$246,465Bitiş Tarihi
31 Oca 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with the official target of 4.5–5% set during March's Two Sessions amid property sector headwinds and global trade risks. The IMF's April 14 forecast revision to 4.4%—down slightly from prior estimates—bolsters this positioning, citing stimulus measures offset by geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices and exports. A Reuters poll on April 13 anticipates Q1 GDP rebounding to 4.8% year-on-year from Q4 2025's 4.5%, supporting early momentum via strong Jan-Feb industrial output and foreign trade, though full-year projections at 4.6% reflect fiscal policy moderation and structural challenges. Upcoming National Bureau of Statistics Q1 data release could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$246,465Bitiş Tarihi
31 Oca 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 71%, aligning with the official target of 4.5–5% set during March's Two Sessions amid property sector headwinds and global trade risks. The IMF's April 14 forecast revision to 4.4%—down slightly from prior estimates—bolsters this positioning, citing stimulus measures offset by geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices and exports. A Reuters poll on April 13 anticipates Q1 GDP rebounding to 4.8% year-on-year from Q4 2025's 4.5%, supporting early momentum via strong Jan-Feb industrial output and foreign trade, though full-year projections at 4.6% reflect fiscal policy moderation and structural challenges. Upcoming National Bureau of Statistics Q1 data release could shift probabilities.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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