China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions Government Work Report, anchors trader consensus at 65.5% odds for 4.0–5.0%, reflecting fiscal stimulus measures like a 4% budget deficit and property sector support amid ongoing real estate weakness. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year—beating forecasts of 4.8%—bolstering 30.3% odds for 5.0–6.0% via robust exports and industrial rebound, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook cut its forecast to 4.4% citing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Low probabilities for extremes stem from structural drags like deflation and debt, with upcoming Q2 data key to shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi%4,0–%5,0 66%
%5,0–%6,0 35.6%
%1,0'ın altında 1.4%
%6,0-%7,0 1.3%
$256,113 Hac.
$256,113 Hac.
31 Oca 2026
%1,0'ın altında
1%
%1,0–%2,0
1%
%2,0–%3,0
1%
%3,0–%4,0
1%
%4,0–%5,0
66%
%5,0–%6,0
30%
%6,0-%7,0
1%
%7,0–%8,0
<1%
%8,0–%9,0
1%
%9,0+
<1%
%4,0–%5,0 66%
%5,0–%6,0 35.6%
%1,0'ın altında 1.4%
%6,0-%7,0 1.3%
$256,113 Hac.
$256,113 Hac.
31 Oca 2026
%1,0'ın altında
$22,840 Hac.
1%
%1,0–%2,0
$27,369 Hac.
1%
%2,0–%3,0
$6,614 Hac.
1%
%3,0–%4,0
$10,429 Hac.
1%
%4,0–%5,0
$41,696 Hac.
66%
%5,0–%6,0
$21,910 Hac.
30%
%6,0-%7,0
$19,570 Hac.
1%
%7,0–%8,0
$29,766 Hac.
<1%
%8,0–%9,0
$6,927 Hac.
1%
%9,0+
$68,994 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions Government Work Report, anchors trader consensus at 65.5% odds for 4.0–5.0%, reflecting fiscal stimulus measures like a 4% budget deficit and property sector support amid ongoing real estate weakness. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year—beating forecasts of 4.8%—bolstering 30.3% odds for 5.0–6.0% via robust exports and industrial rebound, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook cut its forecast to 4.4% citing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Low probabilities for extremes stem from structural drags like deflation and debt, with upcoming Q2 data key to shifts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Hacim
$256,113Bitiş Tarihi
31 Oca 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions Government Work Report, anchors trader consensus at 65.5% odds for 4.0–5.0%, reflecting fiscal stimulus measures like a 4% budget deficit and property sector support amid ongoing real estate weakness. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year—beating forecasts of 4.8%—bolstering 30.3% odds for 5.0–6.0% via robust exports and industrial rebound, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook cut its forecast to 4.4% citing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Low probabilities for extremes stem from structural drags like deflation and debt, with upcoming Q2 data key to shifts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$256,113Bitiş Tarihi
31 Oca 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions Government Work Report, anchors trader consensus at 65.5% odds for 4.0–5.0%, reflecting fiscal stimulus measures like a 4% budget deficit and property sector support amid ongoing real estate weakness. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-over-year—beating forecasts of 4.8%—bolstering 30.3% odds for 5.0–6.0% via robust exports and industrial rebound, though the IMF's April 14 World Economic Outlook cut its forecast to 4.4% citing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Low probabilities for extremes stem from structural drags like deflation and debt, with upcoming Q2 data key to shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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